Gold Has “Decisive Turn Around” – “Next Stop Is $1,300 Or Higher” – Rickards

Gold Has “Decisive Turn Around” – “Next Stop Is $1,300 Or Higher”
James Rickards via Daily Reckoning

But the most important development this week may be the one you never heard about on the news or the internet.

On May 10, gold launched a decisive turnaround from its most recent decline.

This kept intact the pattern I’ve been writing about for weeks of “higher highs, and higher lows” as every retreat finds a footing higher than the one before and each new high reaches new, higher ground.

Gold in USD (5 Years)

This pattern began on Dec. 15, 2016, at an interim low of $1,128/oz. Since then gold has hit new highs of:

  • $1,216/oz on Jan. 17
  • $1,256/oz on Feb. 24
  • $1,289/oz on April 18.

Each time gold retreated from those highs, it found a new bottom at a higher price than the time before. The recent low was $1,218/oz on May 10. In this new spike, gold has now rallied to $1,251 as of early Friday.

If this pattern holds, the next stop is $1,300 or higher.

A Fed rate hike on June 14 could be a catalyst for a move even higher, just as the last two rate hikes on Dec. 14, 2016, and March 15, 2017, were turning points for gold.

No market moves up in a straight line, and gold won’t either. But what we’re seeing right now is very encouraging.

While everyone is focused on the Washington circus this week, they’re missing what could be the real news — gold.

‘The Perils of Complacency’ is James Rickards latest piece for the Daily Reckoning. Full article can be read here

 

News and Commentary

Gold heads for biggest gain in 5 weeks (News.com)

Gold holds gains as Trump concerns support (Reuters.com)

Russia probe reaches current White House official (WashingtonPost.com)

Paulson holds SPDR Gold holdings steady as bullion rallies (Reuters.com)

New platinum bullion coins unveiled during London Platinum Week} (CoinUpdate.com)

Gold in USD (5 Years)

Most important development this week not on the news or the internet – Rickards (DailyReckoning.com)

Get Ready for Quantitative Tightening , Then QE4 – Rickards (DailyReckoning.com)

How China plans to send the price of gold soaring (KingWorldNews.com)

Venezuela: Forty Years of Economic Decline (Mises.org)

Do this one simple thing to get richer every day (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)

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Avoid Digital & ETF Gold – Key Gold Storage Must Haves

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

22 May: USD 1,255.25, GBP 967.17 & EUR 1,123.07 per ounce
19 May: USD 1,251.85, GBP 962.17 & EUR 1,122.03 per ounce
18 May: USD 1,261.35, GBP 968.21 & EUR 1,133.95 per ounce
17 May: USD 1,244.60, GBP 961.70 & EUR 1,122.13 per ounce
16 May: USD 1,234.05, GBP 958.98 & EUR 1,117.93 per ounce
15 May: USD 1,231.50, GBP 952.32 & EUR 1,124.61 per ounce
12 May: USD 1,227.90, GBP 955.06 & EUR 1,129.55 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

22 May: USD 16.95, GBP 13.04 & EUR 15.10 per ounce
19 May: USD 16.77, GBP 12.90 & EUR 15.02 per ounce
18 May: USD 16.81, GBP 12.90 & EUR 15.10 per ounce
17 May: USD 16.90, GBP 13.03 & EUR 15.22 per ounce
16 May: USD 16.72, GBP 12.97 & EUR 15.13 per ounce
15 May: USD 16.59, GBP 12.83 & EUR 15.12 per ounce
12 May: USD 16.30, GBP 12.68 & EUR 14.99 per ounce


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Access Award Winning Daily and Weekly Updates Here

The post Gold Has “Decisive Turn Around” – “Next Stop Is $1,300 Or Higher” – Rickards appeared first on crude-oil.news.

Thousands demand ‘liberation’ of Southern Yemen

Thousands of Yemenis took to the streets of Aden to demand secession of Southern Yemen from the north, TRT World reported, however President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi has said he will not allow this to happen. The rally followed the announcement of a Southern Political Council (SPC) on the 11 May, by the former governor of Aden, Aiderous Al-Zubaidi. Read: Saudi-UAE divided over southern Yemen In a speech addressing Unity Day of Yemen today, Hadi said he will not allow “fragile entities” to unlawfully form governments in the country. The president stressed that people should not be distracted from the “rebellion, coup, and terrorism” which have afflicted the country. Currently there are three governments in Yemen: the Iranian-backed Houthi group […]

Bill Blain: “My Prediction Is That Around October 12 Markets Will Get Horribly Interesting”

By Bill Blain of Mint Partners

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge – May 22nd 2017

“The most dangerous four little words for a prime minister: “Doesn’t she look tired?””

Last week was dominated by Trump news flow. What initially felt like a major market wobble quickly reversed itself and we ended the week basically unchanged.. or “Unched” as the Facebook generation now like to say…

Fundamentals triumphed over the political shenanigans. What does that really tell us? The market was overly nervous, the bearish doomsayers are wrong… or is the bulls are too certain of themselves? Are stocks really so undervalued they justify further upside? Lots of people obviously think so and are ready to buy the dips. And that is basically the core of the current market.

What’s on the menu this week? Sadly, activity is going to be thin this side of the pond – Ascension Day on Thursday means Europe is on a three day week,  and mid-term school holidays in the UK mean lots of empty desks over the next two weeks.  Next month we’re into June, meaning the summer slowdown will be upon us. While summer is coming and the cotton is getting high, I don’t expect the pace of market angst will slow. One of my market contacts at a large investment bank told me they think this is “phony war”. They’re reporting the same things we feel… many investment managers ignoring the physics of financial gravity and the laws of mean reversion.

Why worry? There will be a slew of data out this week – and it will likely to confirm strengthening growth in Europe and a heating up US. The ECB’s talking heads will manage expectations so nobody gets too concerned about the coming Euro Taper.

Many fund managers will look at the numbers, conclude there is nothing to worry about, macro fundamentals are strong and sustainable.. and keep buying. Summer is traditionally the time for asset allocation decisions – and I’m hearing a number of funds, including some monster SWFs, are planning shifts from bonds into stocks. (Clue – a 5% shift from bonds into stocks on a $1 trillion fund = a very significant amount of new cash supporting stocks through the summer..)

But…. Catch a falling knife, why don’t you… I shall spend the summer wondering just how long the Stock Market games continue. When, not if.

At the moment, my prediction is October 12th. Around that day its going to get horribly interesting..

Why that particular day?

Gut feel and knowing how the Bowl of Petunias felt in Hitchhikers. (“Not again.”)

There are just too many contradictory currents out there. The unsustainability of burgeoning consumer debt, unfeasibly tight credit spreads, the sandcastle foundations of student loans, autos, housing and the CLO market, China, Trump, politics.. worries about what follows Brazil in the EM market, and whatever… The risks of a massive consumer sentiment dump..    

And bear in mind we haven’t seen a significant correction to the stock market since 2011! And how sustainable are fundamentals – Goldman Sachs noted at 8-yrs, the current economic recovery is the third longest since 1854. I’ve said before it looks “tired”.

My high priest of stock picking; Steve Previs, was making some incantations to the Elliot deity along the lines of: “we’re approaching the end of the 5th wave.. 5th waves are always followed by a correction..” No idea what it means, but Steve is usually right about these things.. after all he’s been trading stocks since they used to mark up prices on the cave wall.. In those days a bear pit was exactly what it said it was… 

Interesting world we live in.

The Media and the Elites tell us what should be, but that ain’t the way people actually think. Trump is the classic example – every single little thing he says or does is guaranteed to throw the political classes into turmoil and generate enormous waves of market angst – witness last week. Yet, the American heartland voters still love him. California might tumble into the sea, but the Rockies will crumble before much of America loses faith in the Donald. Sure someone will have to pay the price for his non-delivery – and I suspect that will be the Republican Party.

Back in Blighty, and The Theresa May Party might just have shot itself in the foot over the Dementia Tax. What I read in the press over the weekend about surging grassroots support for Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps my 5000/1 double on Corbyn IN / Trump OUT wasn’t such an outrageous play after all…

The post Bill Blain: “My Prediction Is That Around October 12 Markets Will Get Horribly Interesting” appeared first on crude-oil.news.

Bill Blain: “My Prediction Is That Around October 12 Markets Will Get Horribly Interesting”

By Bill Blain of Mint Partners

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge – May 22nd 2017

“The most dangerous four little words for a prime minister: “Doesn’t she look tired?””

Last week was dominated by Trump news flow. What initially felt like a major market wobble quickly reversed itself and we ended the week basically unchanged.. or “Unched” as the Facebook generation now like to say…

Fundamentals triumphed over the political shenanigans. What does that really tell us? The market was overly nervous, the bearish doomsayers are wrong… or is the bulls are too certain of themselves? Are stocks really so undervalued they justify further upside? Lots of people obviously think so and are ready to buy the dips. And that is basically the core of the current market.

What’s on the menu this week? Sadly, activity is going to be thin this side of the pond – Ascension Day on Thursday means Europe is on a three day week,  and mid-term school holidays in the UK mean lots of empty desks over the next two weeks.  Next month we’re into June, meaning the summer slowdown will be upon us. While summer is coming and the cotton is getting high, I don’t expect the pace of market angst will slow. One of my market contacts at a large investment bank told me they think this is “phony war”. They’re reporting the same things we feel… many investment managers ignoring the physics of financial gravity and the laws of mean reversion.

Why worry? There will be a slew of data out this week – and it will likely to confirm strengthening growth in Europe and a heating up US. The ECB’s talking heads will manage expectations so nobody gets too concerned about the coming Euro Taper.

Many fund managers will look at the numbers, conclude there is nothing to worry about, macro fundamentals are strong and sustainable.. and keep buying. Summer is traditionally the time for asset allocation decisions – and I’m hearing a number of funds, including some monster SWFs, are planning shifts from bonds into stocks. (Clue – a 5% shift from bonds into stocks on a $1 trillion fund = a very significant amount of new cash supporting stocks through the summer..)

But…. Catch a falling knife, why don’t you… I shall spend the summer wondering just how long the Stock Market games continue. When, not if.

At the moment, my prediction is October 12th. Around that day its going to get horribly interesting..

Why that particular day?

Gut feel and knowing how the Bowl of Petunias felt in Hitchhikers. (“Not again.”)

There are just too many contradictory currents out there. The unsustainability of burgeoning consumer debt, unfeasibly tight credit spreads, the sandcastle foundations of student loans, autos, housing and the CLO market, China, Trump, politics.. worries about what follows Brazil in the EM market, and whatever… The risks of a massive consumer sentiment dump..    

And bear in mind we haven’t seen a significant correction to the stock market since 2011! And how sustainable are fundamentals – Goldman Sachs noted at 8-yrs, the current economic recovery is the third longest since 1854. I’ve said before it looks “tired”.

My high priest of stock picking; Steve Previs, was making some incantations to the Elliot deity along the lines of: “we’re approaching the end of the 5th wave.. 5th waves are always followed by a correction..” No idea what it means, but Steve is usually right about these things.. after all he’s been trading stocks since they used to mark up prices on the cave wall.. In those days a bear pit was exactly what it said it was… 

Interesting world we live in.

The Media and the Elites tell us what should be, but that ain’t the way people actually think. Trump is the classic example – every single little thing he says or does is guaranteed to throw the political classes into turmoil and generate enormous waves of market angst – witness last week. Yet, the American heartland voters still love him. California might tumble into the sea, but the Rockies will crumble before much of America loses faith in the Donald. Sure someone will have to pay the price for his non-delivery – and I suspect that will be the Republican Party.

Back in Blighty, and The Theresa May Party might just have shot itself in the foot over the Dementia Tax. What I read in the press over the weekend about surging grassroots support for Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps my 5000/1 double on Corbyn IN / Trump OUT wasn’t such an outrageous play after all…

The post Bill Blain: “My Prediction Is That Around October 12 Markets Will Get Horribly Interesting” appeared first on crude-oil.news.

Erdogan calls on EU to fulfil its promises

Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, warned the European Union that Ankara will move on if the bloc does not fulfil its promises and provide visa-free travel to Turks as well as assist with the refugee crisis. We don’t have to put up with the European Union’s double standards anymore Erdogan said at the Third Extraordinary Conference of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) yesterday. Read: Erdogan slams EU’s decision to monitor Turkey’s politics The president demanded the EU keep its word on visa-free travel for Turks, aid for refugees and progress in accession talks if it wants relations to improve. The president also said that his country would like to continue cooperation with the European Union, despite all the tensions in […]

Venezuela holds 5,000 Russian surface-to-air MANPADS missiles

Author: 
Reuters
Mon, 2017-05-22 14:00
ID: 
1495451489970971200

CARACAS: Venezuela possesses 5,000 Russian-made MANPADS surface-to-air weapons, according to a military document reviewed by Reuters, the largest known stockpile in Latin America and a source of concern for US officials amid the country’s mounting turmoil.
Venezuela’s socialist government has long used the threat of an “imperialist” invasion by the United States to justify an arms buildup. Much of that arsenal was obtained from Russia by Venezuela’s late President Hugo Chavez, whose tenure lasted from 1999 until his death in 2013.
The missiles, which are shoulder-mounted and can be operated by one person, pose a serious threat to commercial and military aircraft. Weapons experts said there have long been fears that the weapons could be stolen, sold or somehow channeled to the wrong hands, concerns exacerbated by the current civil unrest in Venezuela and the economic crisis roiling the oil-producing nation.
According to a Venezuelan military presentation seen by Reuters, the South American country has 5,000 SA-24 Man-Portable Air-Defense System (MANPADS) missiles, also known as the Igla-S.
The document seen by Reuters provides the most complete count to date of the size of the arms stockpile. Public weapons registries confirm the bulk of the numbers seen on the Venezuelan military presentation.
Venezuelan government and military officials did not respond to requests for comment about the report.

Coveted by insurgents
First deployed by the United States and Soviet Union in the 1960s, shoulder-mounted missiles have become popular with insurgent groups around the world because they are portable, effective and relatively easy to operate.
The US for years has funded efforts to destroy MANPADS stockpiles in unstable regions as worries have grown about the weapons getting into the hands of militant groups. Some missiles unaccounted for in Libya following the 2011 death of strongman Muammar Qaddafi, for example, are believed to have made their way to other parts of the Middle East.
US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Mike Pompeo expressed concern about the Venezuelan missiles at a Senate hearing earlier this month, though he was clear that he had no evidence that arms transfers had taken place.
“This risk is incredibly real and serious … to South America and Central America in addition to just in Venezuela,” Pompeo said. “The situation in Venezuela continues to deteriorate. (Venezuelan President Nicolas) Maduro gets more desperate by the hour.”
Conservative US politicians such as Florida Republican Marco Rubio have long accused Venezuela of collaborating with a host of global militants, including Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah and Colombia’s FARC rebels, who are disbanding this year.
The Venezuelan government has long mocked such claims as lies used to justify potential foreign aggression.
Some intelligence experts agree the allegations are exaggerated.
“The whole Hezbollah line has been distorted for political purposes by the more extreme elements of the US right wing,” a former C.I.A. senior official told Reuters.
What’s certain is that Venezuela is home to a thriving illicit weapons trade. Pistols, rifles, machine guns, even grenades are easily available on the black market and in the country’s notoriously violent prisons. There are frequent reports of military and police officials stealing weapons.
Colombia has in the past accused Caracas of arming guerrillas with all manner of weaponry. Officials in neighboring Brazil have voiced concerns that local drug gangs may be acquiring military weapons from Venezuela, which has been rocked by seven weeks of anti-government protests.
A former Venezuelan senior army general and minister, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the information, told Reuters the MANPADS missiles are held mainly on the coast due to government fears of a US attack.
He told Reuters that Venezuela also holds 1,500 launchers, or grip stocks, which are fundamental to the operation of the missiles.
Venezuelan officials did not respond to a request for comment about the location and other details of its arsenal.
US WORRIES
Venezuela’s MANPADS missiles, similar to the US Stinger system, were purchased toward the end of Chavez’s rule.
The former paratrooper was briefly toppled in a 2002 coup endorsed by the United States.
The US denied any pretensions to meddle in Venezuela, but Chavez warned his followers continually about the threat of American aggression up until his death.
“We don’t want war,” Chavez said on TV in 2009 as dozens of soldiers marched in front of him with camouflaged MANPADS missiles on their shoulders. “But we need our armed forces to be ever better trained and equipped to secure … the sovereignty of this great nation.”
Russia, a close ally, lent Venezuela $4 billion to buy weapons when Chavez visited Moscow in 2010. It is unclear if any MANPADS missiles were part of that deal.
The UN Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) show the shipment of 3,800 MANPADS missiles from Russia to Venezuela over the last decade. Those records rely on voluntary reports and are often incomplete.
In 2009, then-US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to stop selling MANPADS missiles to Venezuela because of concerns over the South American country’s management of its weapons stockpiles, according to cables released by WikiLeaks.
That same year, Colombia said Sweden’s government confirmed that three rocket launchers found in a FARC guerrilla camp in Colombia were part of a batch that Sweden had sold to Venezuela in the 1980s.
Internal FARC documents seized by Colombia during a 2008 raid in Ecuador appeared to show that the guerilla group entered into talks with Venezuela to obtain MANPADS missiles, though there was no evidence any weapons changed hands.
Venezuela did not respond to a request for comment on those documents.
Venezuelans have taken to the streets in recent weeks to protest the nation’s collapsing economy and the Maduro government’s efforts to solidify its hold on power. Millions are struggling with severe shortages of food, medicine and other basics.
The government blames the problems on its political opponents and the United States.

Main category: 

EU gives Barnier green light to start Brexit talks

Author: 
Agence France Presse
Mon, 2017-05-22 13:57
ID: 
1495451418460960700

BRUSSELS: EU ministers on Monday unanimously gave Frenchman Michel Barnier the mandate to start negotiations with Britain over its exit from the bloc.
“EU 27 just adopted at unanimity decision authorizing Article 50 negotiations. Strong and clear mandate for Michel Barnier,” Barnier’s deputy Sabine Weyand tweeted.

Main category: 

UK PM May says to cap amount elderly have to pay for social care

Author: 
Reuters
Mon, 2017-05-22 13:59
ID: 
1495451125160931900

WREXHAM, Wales: Britain will cap the amount elderly people have to pay for social care, Prime Minister Theresa May said on Monday after a backlash against her election proposal to make more people contribute to the costs.
Opinion polls ahead of a June 8 election have shown the lead enjoyed by her governing Conservative Party has halved since she set out proposals last week to reduce financial support for some elderly voters.
“We will come forward with a consultation paper … and that consultation will include an absolute limit on the amount people have to pay for their care costs,” she said at the launch of her party’s election policy document in Wales.
“We will make sure nobody has to sell their family home to pay for care. We will make sure there’s an absolute limit on what people need to pay. And you will never have to go below 100,000 pounds of your savings, so you will always have something to pass on to your family.”

Main category: 

Merkel says Germany must help France’s Macron to succeed

Author: 
Reuters
Mon, 2017-05-22 13:06
ID: 
1495451045970923800

BERLIN: Germany must help new French President Emmanuel Macron to succeed, Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday, saying she hoped he manages to fight unemployment in France and adding that the best way to counter populists was to solve problems.
Macron is due to meet unions on Tuesday to discuss labor reform. He has said he intends to use executive decrees as soon as this summer to reform labor laws in a country where unemployment remains high at 9.6 percent.
Asked about Germany’s large trade surplus during an event at a school in Berlin, Merkel said her country could invest more even if domestic demand is already the driving force of economic growth.
The center-right chancellor added that reasons for the surplus included a euro that is weak due to the European Central Bank’s expansionary monetary policy and a low oil price. (Reporting by Andreas Rinke, writing by Michael Nienaber and Emma Thomasson)

Main category: 

US officials: Trump must stop Gaza sewage from reaching Israeli beaches

A number of US Congressmen sent a message to President Donald Trump calling for him to find a solution for Gaza’s waste and sanitation which they say is drifting onto Israeli beaches, Al-Resalah newspaper reported yesterday. In their letter, which Israel’s Maariv news site reported, the Congressmen outlined the security threats caused to Israel by this environmental problem, stressing their support for Israel in its measures to treat the problem. The 14 congressmen called on Trump to find a solution for the waste water in Gaza as part of his efforts to achieve peace. Read: One third of Palestinians live below poverty line “We recognise the different threats facing Israel; therefore, we hail your commitments to the security and stability in […]