Exxon Reports Twofold Rise In Profit, But Stock Plunges

Exxon reported a profit of US$3.35 billion for the second quarter of the year, up from US$1.7 billion a year earlier, thanks to better refining margins and higher oil prices. The latter pushed upstream earnings up to US$1.2 billion, an increase of US$890 million from a year earlier. Profit from downstream operations rose 68 percent to US$1.4 billion. The rest of the earnings result came from the chemicals business of Exxon, marking a US$232-million decline on the year to US$985 million. Like its peers, Exxon spent less capital in this year’s…

Jordan charges Israeli embassy guard with murder

An Israeli embassy guard has been charged with murder by Jordan’s attorney general over last Sunday’s shooting of two men in Amman. The Israeli embassy guard, a Shit Bet agent, left for Israel after shooting the landlord of the building and a 17-year-old carpenter who was installing furniture at the block. The victims were later identified as Mohamed Al-Jawawdeh, a Palestinian Muslim who was a refugee in Jordan, and a Jordanian Christian doctor, Bashar Hamarneh. The soldier, Ze’ev, whose last name has not been cleared for publication, returned to a hero’s welcome  in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warmly received Ze’ev who thanked the minister for the swift reaction to this issue and for facilitating his return. Ze’ev said that […]

The Magic Of Revisions: How That Abysmal “Snowfall” Quarter Of 2015 Became 3.2% GDP

Remember when in January of 2015, after a bout of heavy snowfall and cold weather across, everyone was certain that Q1 GDP would be a disaster? If not, here is a reminder from the WSJ:

Brace for blizzards and other bad weather to hit the economy again this winter, though perhaps not as deeply as last year. The forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers on Thursday said heavy snowfall pounding the Northeast and parts of the Midwest will subtract 0.4 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in the first quarter. Last year was much worse, with a barrage of bad weather across a wider swath of the country taking an estimated 1.4 percentage point off growth in GDP, the broadest measure of economic output.

 

“The major snowstorms that hit the Chicago and Boston areas earlier this month yielded larger contributions to the snowfall index than did any snowfall totals in any county last February,” the firm said in a note to clients. “But outside of these areas, every other county’s contribution in the top 100 is lower this February than last February…at least given our assumptions for the balance of the month.”

This is what Forbes said at the time: “many economists and investors are pointing to snowy winter weather as the root of the weakness.”

And, as predicted, all these prediction came true because on April 29, 2015, when the BEAR released its first estimate of Q1 GDP, it said the US economy grew only 0.2%?

The number was so bad, it prompted the BEA to unleash the infamous “double seasonal adjustment” to eliminate residual seasonality – i.e., stuff that should already have been ignored due to the original seasonal adjustments.

Looking back, however, we can now revise the statement, because all those doom and gloom predictions came true “at the time” as today, as part of its Q2 GDP release, the BEA also released its annual revision of National Income and Product Accounts.

What it shows is comic: while we already noted the broad based revision to the data, which resulted in a downward revision to GDP prints from Q3 2016 through Q1 of 2017, it was the “snowfall” quarter of 2015 that drew our attention. In the best example of revisionist economic history we have encountered in years, the BEA has completely forgotten all those worries about cold weather, which readers may recall prompted the Fed to push back on its fledgling tightening intentions in the start of 2015 worried about economic strength. And as a result, following a slew of revisions, what was originally a weather-crushed 0.2% GDP quarter is as of this moment, a nice and balmy 3.2%.

And that’s why all economic data is absolutely meaningless.

The post The Magic Of Revisions: How That Abysmal “Snowfall” Quarter Of 2015 Became 3.2% GDP appeared first on crude-oil.news.

The Magic Of Revisions: How That Abysmal “Snowfall” Quarter Of 2015 Became 3.2% GDP

Remember when in January of 2015, after a bout of heavy snowfall and cold weather across, everyone was certain that Q1 GDP would be a disaster? If not, here is a reminder from the WSJ:

Brace for blizzards and other bad weather to hit the economy again this winter, though perhaps not as deeply as last year. The forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers on Thursday said heavy snowfall pounding the Northeast and parts of the Midwest will subtract 0.4 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in the first quarter. Last year was much worse, with a barrage of bad weather across a wider swath of the country taking an estimated 1.4 percentage point off growth in GDP, the broadest measure of economic output.

 

“The major snowstorms that hit the Chicago and Boston areas earlier this month yielded larger contributions to the snowfall index than did any snowfall totals in any county last February,” the firm said in a note to clients. “But outside of these areas, every other county’s contribution in the top 100 is lower this February than last February…at least given our assumptions for the balance of the month.”

This is what Forbes said at the time: “many economists and investors are pointing to snowy winter weather as the root of the weakness.”

And, as predicted, all these prediction came true because on April 29, 2015, when the BEAR released its first estimate of Q1 GDP, it said the US economy grew only 0.2%?

The number was so bad, it prompted the BEA to unleash the infamous “double seasonal adjustment” to eliminate residual seasonality – i.e., stuff that should already have been ignored due to the original seasonal adjustments.

Looking back, however, we can now revise the statement, because all those doom and gloom predictions came true “at the time” as today, as part of its Q2 GDP release, the BEA also released its annual revision of National Income and Product Accounts.

What it shows is comic: while we already noted the broad based revision to the data, which resulted in a downward revision to GDP prints from Q3 2016 through Q1 of 2017, it was the “snowfall” quarter of 2015 that drew our attention. In the best example of revisionist economic history we have encountered in years, the BEA has completely forgotten all those worries about cold weather, which readers may recall prompted the Fed to push back on its fledgling tightening intentions in the start of 2015 worried about economic strength. And as a result, following a slew of revisions, what was originally a weather-crushed 0.2% GDP quarter is as of this moment, a nice and balmy 3.2%.

And that’s why all economic data is absolutely meaningless.

The post The Magic Of Revisions: How That Abysmal “Snowfall” Quarter Of 2015 Became 3.2% GDP appeared first on crude-oil.news.

UAE To Change Terms Of Japanese Oil Concessions

Adnoc will offer Japanese energy companies that hold concessions for fields in the Emirates new terms and conditions as part of a renegotiation of the concessions, the company’s CEO told Nikkei. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who doubles as minister of state, added that the final decision will be made by the end of this year or early in 2018. UAE concessions account for 40 percent of Japans oil output from overseas operations, which makes them vital for the country’s crude oil supply. They are equally vital for Tokyo’s plan to source…

Ecuador, Schlumberger Reach Agreement On Debt Payments

Ecuador’s government has reached an agreement with Schlumberger to start repaying a debt accumulated over the last few years, according to a Reuters report. The government also said the oilfield service major had agreed on new investments to the tune of US$1 billion. The debt, which Schlumberger in March calculated at US$1.1 billion, has been giving the company a headache, pressuring its first-quarter results. Talks on the repayment had stalled for a few months and Schlumberger started to get impatient. Ecuador, which is the smallest member…

UAE To Change Terms Of Japanese Oil Concessions

Adnoc will offer Japanese energy companies that hold concessions for fields in the Emirates new terms and conditions as part of a renegotiation of the concessions, the company’s CEO told Nikkei. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who doubles as minister of state, added that the final decision will be made by the end of this year or early in 2018. UAE concessions account for 40 percent of Japans oil output from overseas operations, which makes them vital for the country’s crude oil supply. They are equally vital for Tokyo’s plan to source…

One Trader’s “Market Playbook” For An Anything-But-Quiet August

Traders were suddenly ‘woke’ from their sleepy summer ‘this is a no brainer melt up’ doldrums this week by some sudden vol… for no good reason. As former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, however, there is a ‘playbook’ for what happens next as the market seems destined to test technical support and resistance levels.

Via Bloomberg,

It’s Friday and the middle of the summer. You’d think it would be one of those days where people want to get in and get out with a minimum of fanfare. But that’s not how it feels nor how it’s playing out. We’ve had some decent ranges across instruments. Volumes have been healthy and running above the average for the last couple of weeks. There’s no question that a lot of assets are in play.

Suddenly, you have to be asking yourself if casually selling volatility is such an obviously smart strategy.

Next week August begins and if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the last few years, it’s certainly not guaranteed to be a snoozer.

The price levels that we saw before Chair Yellen’s dovish tilt during her Congressional testimony have become important technical resistance or support points for delineating market sentiment. They have all held since and shouldn’t be forgotten. But they’re too far away to guide trading today and into next week. Not to fret. They’ve been supplemented by new and closer levels. Hurrah, we have an interested market and close pivots galore to play with.

 

Markets moved on the FOMC this week. Another dovish lurch? See you in September? Maybe. But it’s not at all clear. German inflation numbers raise the question of whether it really was the time for everyone to go all meek. In one of those inexplicable shifts in attitude, we’ve gone from traders thinking the central banks were getting ahead of themselves to raising the very real possibility that they risk falling behind. Do we really need to see the whites of their eyes before having any faith in the future?

 

After the latest meeting statement, the dollar got whacked. But then it did a significant thing. It tried to rally and made it all of the way back to pre- announcement levels before falling away. Retesting a break-out and holding should put that price (circa 94.10 for the DXY) firmly on your technical radar. And it’s close, which is perfect as a pivot and for our purposes.

 

 

Perhaps of even more immediate interest is that 10-year Treasury yields are back to testing their break-down level, courtesy of today’s European back-up. A move back above 2.33% puts 2.40% into play and, then, who knows?

 

 

Gold was courteous enough to boot off from $1250, a nice round number that’s easy to remember.

 

 

For S&P 500 futures, the reasons are different but the level clear. The E-Mini below 2475 looks squishy if not soft.

 

 

Back above and we can continue to believe that the powers that be have your back.

As Breslow concludes, if you have to be here anyway, might as well make the most of what may prove to be an revealing insight into where we go next.

The post One Trader’s “Market Playbook” For An Anything-But-Quiet August appeared first on crude-oil.news.

One Trader’s “Market Playbook” For An Anything-But-Quiet August

Traders were suddenly ‘woke’ from their sleepy summer ‘this is a no brainer melt up’ doldrums this week by some sudden vol… for no good reason. As former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, however, there is a ‘playbook’ for what happens next as the market seems destined to test technical support and resistance levels.

Via Bloomberg,

It’s Friday and the middle of the summer. You’d think it would be one of those days where people want to get in and get out with a minimum of fanfare. But that’s not how it feels nor how it’s playing out. We’ve had some decent ranges across instruments. Volumes have been healthy and running above the average for the last couple of weeks. There’s no question that a lot of assets are in play.

Suddenly, you have to be asking yourself if casually selling volatility is such an obviously smart strategy.

Next week August begins and if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the last few years, it’s certainly not guaranteed to be a snoozer.

The price levels that we saw before Chair Yellen’s dovish tilt during her Congressional testimony have become important technical resistance or support points for delineating market sentiment. They have all held since and shouldn’t be forgotten. But they’re too far away to guide trading today and into next week. Not to fret. They’ve been supplemented by new and closer levels. Hurrah, we have an interested market and close pivots galore to play with.

 

Markets moved on the FOMC this week. Another dovish lurch? See you in September? Maybe. But it’s not at all clear. German inflation numbers raise the question of whether it really was the time for everyone to go all meek. In one of those inexplicable shifts in attitude, we’ve gone from traders thinking the central banks were getting ahead of themselves to raising the very real possibility that they risk falling behind. Do we really need to see the whites of their eyes before having any faith in the future?

 

After the latest meeting statement, the dollar got whacked. But then it did a significant thing. It tried to rally and made it all of the way back to pre- announcement levels before falling away. Retesting a break-out and holding should put that price (circa 94.10 for the DXY) firmly on your technical radar. And it’s close, which is perfect as a pivot and for our purposes.

 

 

Perhaps of even more immediate interest is that 10-year Treasury yields are back to testing their break-down level, courtesy of today’s European back-up. A move back above 2.33% puts 2.40% into play and, then, who knows?

 

 

Gold was courteous enough to boot off from $1250, a nice round number that’s easy to remember.

 

 

For S&P 500 futures, the reasons are different but the level clear. The E-Mini below 2475 looks squishy if not soft.

 

 

Back above and we can continue to believe that the powers that be have your back.

As Breslow concludes, if you have to be here anyway, might as well make the most of what may prove to be an revealing insight into where we go next.

The post One Trader’s “Market Playbook” For An Anything-But-Quiet August appeared first on crude-oil.news.

Educating refugees in Za’atari a key to rebuilding Syria

Today is the fifth anniversary of the establishment of Jordan’s Za’atari camp for Syrian refugees situated in the north of the country. It is estimated that around 80,000 refugees currently inhabit Za’atari, making it the largest Syrian camp in the world. The first dwellings were built in just nine days in July 2012 and by the following April, UNHCR estimated that more than 200,000 people were living there. While the inhabitants of Za’atari have decreased since then and the camp’s infrastructure has widely improved, it continues to be a symbol of the wider Syrian refugee crisis. Rania Malki, CEO of Save the Children Jordan, said: Za’atari represents much more than the war. It represents the start of the Syrian refugee […]