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Is The “Deplorable Economy” Flashing Warning Signs About Overall Economic Growth Prospects?

For months we’ve been warning that soaring auto sales represent nothing more than the latest bubble created courtesy of low interest rates, deteriorating lending standards in the form of stretched maturities and weaker credit profiles, and an insatiable demand for auto securitizations from yield-thirsty pension funds which wall street is happily trying to meet (see here, here and here).

Of course, with subprime auto ABS issuance soaring past 2006 levels last year…

Auto ABS Issuance

 

…and total outstanding auto loans up 34% over the previous peak set back in 2005, it’s not that difficult to understand our concern.

Auto ABS Outstanding

 

Meanwhile, as Craig Kennison of Baird’s Consumer Leisure Group points out, the “Deplorable Economy” (i.e. demand for big-ticket discretionary goods like RV’s, boats and 4-wheelers) may also be getting “ahead of itself” despite the expectation of lower taxes rates from the Trump administration.

We like ideas exposed to the deplorable economy, but our powersports checks suggest the Trump-trade may be ahead of itself. Early 2017 could repeat the trading action in early 2016, when many stocks bottomed only after management teams reset expectation. Look for a post-Christmas sale on deplorable ideas like Polaris. We also would look for discounts in the marine space, including Brunswick and MasterCraft, which should benefit from a boot in wealth fueled by a higher stock market, healthy real estate values, and tax cuts. Beyond a job, a tax cut for individuals remains the single most important catalyst for discretionary spending (but a corporate tax cut may be a more important factor for stocks). With that in mind, we favor stocks with heavy U.S. exposure and higher tax rates that have the potential to drop.

 

We are optimistic that policy changes will benefit our coverage universe but see huge risks in trade policy and international exposure. A NAFTA reboot could harm Polaris and BRP. Meanwhile, Harley-Davidson could benefit from policies favoring the American worker – but a strong dollar and foreign retaliation may make life more difficult overseas.

 

A wealth effect among affluent consumers (and expanding credit availability) fueled robust demand for big-ticket recreation products from 2010-2015. However, in 2016, a divergence in growth between various Leisure categories emerged – and our view of the wealth effect became more nuanced. We saw that Leisure categories whose wealth effects are tied to the stock market and real estate values (e.g., marine, RV) continued to grow, while categories whose wealth effects are tied more heavily toward oil and ag prices (e.g., powersports) saw a sharp decline in demand in 2016. We see a bottom forming in oil and ag markets which we believe supports stable to modestly increasing demand in the powersports space in 2017 – and expect fundamentals to support continued steady growth in the marine and RV markets over the next year.

As Kennison notes, the expansion of cheap credit has driven the demand for “Deplorable Toys” like towable RVs to 131% of their previous peak demand set before the “great recession.”  Meanwhile, demand for autos has also surpassed the previous peak while demand for other big-ticket toys have also soared over the past two years.

Deplorable Economy

 

And for those that would dismiss the importance of soaring RV sales, perhaps the following chart can help put their relevance to the broader economy into perspective.

What do #RV sales and #GDP have in common? A lot, actually. via @Yamarone and @BloombergBrief #economics pic.twitter.com/vTRLTwaVvZ

— Anne Riley Moffat (@A_Riley17) February 12, 2015

The post Is The “Deplorable Economy” Flashing Warning Signs About Overall Economic Growth Prospects? appeared first on crude-oil.top.



No Picture

Fundraising drive for Syrians gets enormous Saudi support

Author: 
RASHID HASSAN
Wed, 2016-12-28
ID: 
1482877701725835000

RIYADH: The instruction from King Salman to organize a fundraising campaign in the Kingdom to provide humanitarian assistance to the war-torn Syrian people received overwhelming support with the Council of Senior Scholars making a call on Tuesday for urgent contributions to the popular campaign.
The Kingdom on Monday launched a nationwide fundraising campaign to help displaced Syrians, including thousands of people evacuated from eastern Aleppo in a week-long operation this month. Many of them are staying in temporary shelters in freezing temperatures.
Moreover, King Salman ordered a relief campaign starting Tuesday and allocated SR100 million to the drive.
Reacting to this, the General Secretariat of the Council of Senior Scholars called for urgent contributions to the popular campaign ordered by the king.
The council, in a statement, maintained that that the Syrian brothers have been divided by unjust policies, displaced and became refugees by oppressive powers, and are living in difficult conditions.
The council also prayed to Allah Almighty to grant the best rewards to King Salman for his benevolent efforts to serve humanity.
Welcoming the move to raise funds for humanitarian assistance to the war-hit Syrians, Mohamed Al-Khunaizi, a senior member of the Shoura Council, told Arab News, “this is a highly appreciated step to reduce their sufferings.”
He added that the Kingdom is trying to help Syrians live better lives, and therefore, assigned monetary assistance toward providing them with the needful essentials.
“I think Saudis will come forward wholeheartedly and donate generously for the good cause to help the distressed Syrians,” he added.
Referring to Al-Zaatari Refugee Camp in northern Jordan, he said, “I have been there, the Saudi National Campaign (SNC) is extending excellent humanitarian services to the Syrian people living in the camp.”
Moreover, SNC’s medical arm, the Saudi Specialized Clinics (SSC) provides medical care to the people living in the Zaatari camp.
Talal Al-Otaibi, a media consultant, applauded the humanitarian campaign saying this was very much needed to support the Syrian brothers in dire need of assistance.
It will help reduce the suffering of the Syrian brethren and sisters, especially those evacuated from Aleppo and other areas, who have been displaced and are facing a difficult situation.
Significantly, the King Salman Center for Relief and Humanitarian Works (KSRelief) will coordinate with pertinent authorities on the provision of aid items such as foodstuff, drugs, and shelters, and will receive the injured for treatment, furnish camps, and help in the delivery of complete wintertime aid packages.
The Kingdom is one of the largest donors to United Nations relief campaigns for Syria.

Main category: 

No Picture

Fundraising drive for Syrians gets enormous Saudi support

Author: 
RASHID HASSAN
Wed, 2016-12-28
ID: 
1482877701725835000

RIYADH: The instruction from King Salman to organize a fundraising campaign in the Kingdom to provide humanitarian assistance to the war-torn Syrian people received overwhelming support with the Council of Senior Scholars making a call on Tuesday for urgent contributions to the popular campaign.
The Kingdom on Monday launched a nationwide fundraising campaign to help displaced Syrians, including thousands of people evacuated from eastern Aleppo in a week-long operation this month. Many of them are staying in temporary shelters in freezing temperatures.
Moreover, King Salman ordered a relief campaign starting Tuesday and allocated SR100 million to the drive.
Reacting to this, the General Secretariat of the Council of Senior Scholars called for urgent contributions to the popular campaign ordered by the king.
The council, in a statement, maintained that that the Syrian brothers have been divided by unjust policies, displaced and became refugees by oppressive powers, and are living in difficult conditions.
The council also prayed to Allah Almighty to grant the best rewards to King Salman for his benevolent efforts to serve humanity.
Welcoming the move to raise funds for humanitarian assistance to the war-hit Syrians, Mohamed Al-Khunaizi, a senior member of the Shoura Council, told Arab News, “this is a highly appreciated step to reduce their sufferings.”
He added that the Kingdom is trying to help Syrians live better lives, and therefore, assigned monetary assistance toward providing them with the needful essentials.
“I think Saudis will come forward wholeheartedly and donate generously for the good cause to help the distressed Syrians,” he added.
Referring to Al-Zaatari Refugee Camp in northern Jordan, he said, “I have been there, the Saudi National Campaign (SNC) is extending excellent humanitarian services to the Syrian people living in the camp.”
Moreover, SNC’s medical arm, the Saudi Specialized Clinics (SSC) provides medical care to the people living in the Zaatari camp.
Talal Al-Otaibi, a media consultant, applauded the humanitarian campaign saying this was very much needed to support the Syrian brothers in dire need of assistance.
It will help reduce the suffering of the Syrian brethren and sisters, especially those evacuated from Aleppo and other areas, who have been displaced and are facing a difficult situation.
Significantly, the King Salman Center for Relief and Humanitarian Works (KSRelief) will coordinate with pertinent authorities on the provision of aid items such as foodstuff, drugs, and shelters, and will receive the injured for treatment, furnish camps, and help in the delivery of complete wintertime aid packages.
The Kingdom is one of the largest donors to United Nations relief campaigns for Syria.

Main category: 

No Picture

911 unified security operations center helps protect pilgrims

Author: 
Mohammed Al-Sulami
Wed, 2016-12-28
ID: 
1482877701705834700

JEDDAH: Prince Khaled Al-Faisal, adviser of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and Makkah governor, said that the 911 unified security operations center in the Makkah region is considered a qualitative security leap, not only in Makkah, but also in the Kingdom as a whole.
He added that the center will have a major impact, particularly during the Haj season, as it will be able to protect the security of the pilgrims and provide them with better services.
Upon his visit to the center Monday morning, Prince Al-Faisal expressed appreciation and pride of the “colleagues at the Interior Ministry, particularly in this center as it will be dealing with Haj and Umrah pilgrims all year long.”
Al-Faisal expressed his congratulations and appreciation to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques for the Kingdom’s developments in all sectors.
“I salute my leader, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, for the comprehensive developments the Kingdom has witnessed since its establishment, including the security sector,” he said adding that the Ministry of Interior is witnessing a major development under the leadership of the Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Naif.
Al-Faisal added that the Interior Ministry and Prince Mohammed bin Naif became role models for the world in combating terrorism and in different security fields. “I’m very glad to see this security project that developed from an idea to transfer services from Mina to outside to be a unified national center for security operations.”
Al-Faisal congratulated the Saudi citizens, wherever they are, and told them that “this country was and is still a pioneer in all fields, particularly in security.”
Prince Al-Faisal was given a tour of the center and he listened to a full briefing by the head of the national center, Abdul Rahman Al-Saleh, on the center’s initiatives including the latest technologies, and its role in crises and disasters.

Main category: 

No Picture

911 unified security operations center helps protect pilgrims

Author: 
Mohammed Al-Sulami
Wed, 2016-12-28
ID: 
1482877701705834700

JEDDAH: Prince Khaled Al-Faisal, adviser of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and Makkah governor, said that the 911 unified security operations center in the Makkah region is considered a qualitative security leap, not only in Makkah, but also in the Kingdom as a whole.
He added that the center will have a major impact, particularly during the Haj season, as it will be able to protect the security of the pilgrims and provide them with better services.
Upon his visit to the center Monday morning, Prince Al-Faisal expressed appreciation and pride of the “colleagues at the Interior Ministry, particularly in this center as it will be dealing with Haj and Umrah pilgrims all year long.”
Al-Faisal expressed his congratulations and appreciation to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques for the Kingdom’s developments in all sectors.
“I salute my leader, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, for the comprehensive developments the Kingdom has witnessed since its establishment, including the security sector,” he said adding that the Ministry of Interior is witnessing a major development under the leadership of the Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Naif.
Al-Faisal added that the Interior Ministry and Prince Mohammed bin Naif became role models for the world in combating terrorism and in different security fields. “I’m very glad to see this security project that developed from an idea to transfer services from Mina to outside to be a unified national center for security operations.”
Al-Faisal congratulated the Saudi citizens, wherever they are, and told them that “this country was and is still a pioneer in all fields, particularly in security.”
Prince Al-Faisal was given a tour of the center and he listened to a full briefing by the head of the national center, Abdul Rahman Al-Saleh, on the center’s initiatives including the latest technologies, and its role in crises and disasters.

Main category: 

No Picture

SPA trains 44 journalists on first aid during emergencies

Author: 
Arab News
Wed, 2016-12-28
ID: 
1482877701685834400

RIYADH: Forty-four journalists of the Saudi Press Agency and various media in the Kingdom have conducted training experiences during the “first aid and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) course for reporters” that was organized by SPA on Sunday in collaboration with King Saud University/Clinical Skills and Simulation Center, at its headquarters in Riyadh.
This event comes to help journalists learn the best medical means to save any human casualty they might see during their press duties, especially in dangerous places.
The course has provided journalists and reporters with general and specialized skills according to practical scenarios prepared by SPA with the Clinical Skills and Simulation Center to learn how to perform first aid when exposed to sudden medical emergencies that necessitate rapid human intervention, in addition to explaining the kinds of injuries that people could experience in public places inside cities, or in dangerous places that require the existence of journalists to cover events.
Participants in the course carried out simulations on the recovery of the heart and lungs after a sudden stop which leads to lack of oxygen to the brain and the loss of consciousness, so as to save the injured until the ambulance squad arrives.
They also were trained on the use of a defibrillator and how to do compressions on the chest, in addition to artificial respiration for adults and children.
They also performed practical scenarios on how to save those who have difficulty in breathing, according to scientific steps that could help the injured.
The participants were trained on how to use an epinephrine auto-injector, a medical device used to give a dose (or doses) of epinephrine (known as adrenaline) using auto-injector technology which is widely used in the treatment of allergic reactions to avoid acute anaphylactic shock.
President of Saudi Press Agency, Abdullah bin Fahd Al-Hussein said: “This session comes within the framework of agreements of cooperation between the Saudi Press Agency and the University of King Saud for the exchange of experiences between the two sides in all fields, as well as to enhance the overall concept of cooperation between the various sectors of the state in line with the Saudi Vision 2030.”
Al-Hussein stressed that the Saudi Press Agency will always hold such events and others based on its social responsibility.

Main category: 

No Picture

SPA trains 44 journalists on first aid during emergencies

Author: 
Arab News
Wed, 2016-12-28
ID: 
1482877701685834400

RIYADH: Forty-four journalists of the Saudi Press Agency and various media in the Kingdom have conducted training experiences during the “first aid and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) course for reporters” that was organized by SPA on Sunday in collaboration with King Saud University/Clinical Skills and Simulation Center, at its headquarters in Riyadh.
This event comes to help journalists learn the best medical means to save any human casualty they might see during their press duties, especially in dangerous places.
The course has provided journalists and reporters with general and specialized skills according to practical scenarios prepared by SPA with the Clinical Skills and Simulation Center to learn how to perform first aid when exposed to sudden medical emergencies that necessitate rapid human intervention, in addition to explaining the kinds of injuries that people could experience in public places inside cities, or in dangerous places that require the existence of journalists to cover events.
Participants in the course carried out simulations on the recovery of the heart and lungs after a sudden stop which leads to lack of oxygen to the brain and the loss of consciousness, so as to save the injured until the ambulance squad arrives.
They also were trained on the use of a defibrillator and how to do compressions on the chest, in addition to artificial respiration for adults and children.
They also performed practical scenarios on how to save those who have difficulty in breathing, according to scientific steps that could help the injured.
The participants were trained on how to use an epinephrine auto-injector, a medical device used to give a dose (or doses) of epinephrine (known as adrenaline) using auto-injector technology which is widely used in the treatment of allergic reactions to avoid acute anaphylactic shock.
President of Saudi Press Agency, Abdullah bin Fahd Al-Hussein said: “This session comes within the framework of agreements of cooperation between the Saudi Press Agency and the University of King Saud for the exchange of experiences between the two sides in all fields, as well as to enhance the overall concept of cooperation between the various sectors of the state in line with the Saudi Vision 2030.”
Al-Hussein stressed that the Saudi Press Agency will always hold such events and others based on its social responsibility.

Main category: 

No Picture

Al-Amr: Nebras is a pioneer in anti-drug efforts

Author: 
Arab News
Wed, 2016-12-28
ID: 
1482877701665834100

RIYADH: Civil Defense Director General Sulaiman bin Abdullah Al-Amr said Tuesday that the youth should be aware of the fact that the country is targeted, and be wary about anybody who attempts to mess with the security of the homeland and push young people to drug addiction.
Speaking at an awareness-raising lecture at the Civil Defense headquarters, in the presence of the secretary-general of the national committee to combat drugs, Al-Amr praised the National Project for the Prevention of Narcotics (Nebras), saying that it is a pioneer national project that works to combat all attempts to target the young generations.
He also commended efforts to raise awareness to the problem of drugs and their negative repercussions on individuals, family and society.
Secretary-General of (Nebras), Abdul Ilah bin Mohammed Al-Sharif, praised the efforts to combat drugs by authorities that are implementing the leadership’s directives, pointing out that the Kingdom is facing a drug war on its youth.
Al-Sharif added that the great efforts exerted by the security forces, especially the Civil Defense personnel, help save lives.
During the event different seminars were also held, including one on Nebras as a national project that works to create awareness among the youth, lower the number of crimes and support NGOs that strive to create a drug-free environment.
The project also provides several services, including the 1955 toll-free number, to ease communication with the community.

Main category: 

No Picture

Al-Amr: Nebras is a pioneer in anti-drug efforts

Author: 
Arab News
Wed, 2016-12-28
ID: 
1482877701665834100

RIYADH: Civil Defense Director General Sulaiman bin Abdullah Al-Amr said Tuesday that the youth should be aware of the fact that the country is targeted, and be wary about anybody who attempts to mess with the security of the homeland and push young people to drug addiction.
Speaking at an awareness-raising lecture at the Civil Defense headquarters, in the presence of the secretary-general of the national committee to combat drugs, Al-Amr praised the National Project for the Prevention of Narcotics (Nebras), saying that it is a pioneer national project that works to combat all attempts to target the young generations.
He also commended efforts to raise awareness to the problem of drugs and their negative repercussions on individuals, family and society.
Secretary-General of (Nebras), Abdul Ilah bin Mohammed Al-Sharif, praised the efforts to combat drugs by authorities that are implementing the leadership’s directives, pointing out that the Kingdom is facing a drug war on its youth.
Al-Sharif added that the great efforts exerted by the security forces, especially the Civil Defense personnel, help save lives.
During the event different seminars were also held, including one on Nebras as a national project that works to create awareness among the youth, lower the number of crimes and support NGOs that strive to create a drug-free environment.
The project also provides several services, including the 1955 toll-free number, to ease communication with the community.

Main category: