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The Dollar Index Is At A Crucial Level

Via Dana Lyons’ Tumblr,

The U.S. Dollar is testing the breakout point of its 20-month trading range.

On an Inauguration Day in which the overriding theme of the incoming President’s speech was one of protectionism, it was fitting that the Chart Of The Day dealt with the U.S. Dollar protecting its own chart “turf”. Following the Dollar’s explosive rally from 2014 to 2015, it settled into a 20-month consolidation. In the case of the Dollar Index (DXY), this relatively tight range stretched from roughly 92.5 to 100.5. In the frenzied post-election action in the financial markets, the DXY was finally able to break out above the top of its range. And after a brief test of the 100.5 breakout area in early December, the DXY traded as high as 103.82.

In recent weeks, however, we have seen it pull back to where it is once again presently testing the 100.5 breakout level.



Many folks, including ourselves, have surmised that the 20-month trading range was likely just a digestion of the 2014-2015 rally and would put the Dollar into position to launch its next leg higher. For that theory to be correct, holding this breakout area may be crucial. Should the DXY indeed be successful at holding this level, a longer-term, more significant up-leg is certainly in play.

Of course, if the DXY fails to hold its breakout level, then a “false breakout” is the focus. And the downside potential following a false breakout could be considerable. Either way, a lot could be riding on this test right here in the Dollar.

Additionally, over the years, we have learned to judge each security and asset on its own merits. That is, the practice of “inter-market”, derivative analysis, or directing one’s investment in an asset based on the movement of another is vastly overrated. That said, if there is one asset that wields more influence over the behavior of others, it is likely the Dollar. Therefore, if one can correctly analyze the path of the Dollar, they have a decent shot at getting other assets right.

And that reality makes this current test that much more consequential. 

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More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

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Conservatives vs Liberals

Live Coverage of the Financial World and Memes – FinancialJuice.comThe post Conservatives vs Liberals appeared first on

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A Look At Trump’s First Monday In Office: Executive Orders, Meetings, Cabinet Votes And More

As Donald Trump himself tweeted on Monday morning…

Busy week planned with a heavy focus on jobs and national security. Top executives coming in at 9:00 A.M. to talk manufacturing in America.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 23, 2017

… the president’s first official day on the job will be busy, including a meeting with business executivesm congressional leaders (including a separate meeting with House Speaker Paul Ryan), signing executive orders and getting his cabinet picks voted through.

According to the WSJ, Trump is also expected to sign various executive orders around 10:30am, which as previewed yesterday will include such topics as trade, immigration, government hiring, Obamacare and a lobbying ban.

According to the White House, which released daily guidance for the president on Sunday evening, Trump’s Monday will include a “breakfast and listening session with key business leaders” and a similar afternoon session with union leaders and “American Workers.”

Among this week’s key meetings, Trump is scheduled to with meet “top executives” at 9 a.m. today to discuss manufacturing, and British PM Theresa May on Friday.

He’ll have lunch with Vice President Mike Pence at noon. At 5 p.m., Trump is scheduled to hold a leadership reception with congressional leaders from both parties, followed by a private meeting with House Speaker Paul Ryan an hour later.

But the media will likely be fascinating by White House press secretary Sean Spicer, who will deliver an on-camera briefing at 1 p.m. that’s sure to be a focus of the day, given the weekend focus on the Trump administrations reaction to media coverage of the crowd sizes at the inauguration.

Also expect a series of cabinet votes: Mike Pompeo, the new head of the CIA, should get a vote today. White House officials expect at least three more Cabinet nominees, Ben Carson, Nikki Haley and Rick Perry, to be voted on by the end of the week, per the WSJ. And while Tillerson may not get a vote this week, Graham and McCain are now on board.

Clearing Mr. Trump’s nominees is a top priority because he is starting his presidency with a much thinner cabinet than his predecessor. On Barack Obama’s first day in office in 2009, the Senate approved six members of his cabinet. A seventh, Defense Secretary Bob Gates, was a holdover from the George W. Bush administration. The Senate that day confirmed an eighth nominee, Peter Orszag, to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Cited by the WSJ, Trump is optimistic about the beginning of his presidency despite a rocky first weekend that saw mass anti-Trump protests across the nation and world and his representatives’ repeated falsehoods about media reporting of verifiable events.

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Peso, Loonie Drop After NAFTA Renegotiation Executive Order Headlines

Confirming his campaign rhetoric and inaugural address tone, President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as early as Monday to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico, according to NBC News’ Kristen Welker.

President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as early as Monday stating his intention to renegotiate the free trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, a White House official told NBC News.


Eliminating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was crafted by former President Bill Clinton and enacted in 1994, was a frequent Trump campaign promise.


The deal was intended to eliminate most trade tariffs between the three nations, increase investment and tighten protection and enforcement of intellectual property.

The reaction in the Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar is clear…

This should hardly be surprise…

I will renegotiate NAFTA. If I can’t make a great deal, we’re going to tear it up. We’re going to get this economy running again. #Debate

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 20, 2016

Canada’s ambassador to the United States said it was clear the Trump team were concerned above all about trade deficits with Mexico and China.

“I don’t think Canada is the focus at all,” David MacNaughton told reporters in Calgary, Alberta, ahead of a two-day government retreat focused on how to handle the new Trump administration.

Additionally, as CNN’s Jake Tapper tweeted, Trump is expected to abandon TPP…


Sr WH official: POTUS’s first executive action on Monday will be to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, per @JDiamond1

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) January 23, 2017

All of which confirms the new White House’s statement:

“This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers,”


“President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the president will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA.”

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