Monthly chart: here situation doesn’t change. ADX is ramping up, oscillator is showing divergence, weekly upper Bollinger band (2427.6) is still not broken. All we are left to do is to look for possibilities on smaller time frames.
Weekly chart: there is a strong valid resistance level around 2427.6 (upper Bollinger band). Both indicators are at their extremes causing start of downward rollback.
Daily chart: we may already see first signs of coming reversal to the downside, however, we would not recommend selling – weekly upper Bollinger band is still rising. Considering that, we may expect another rebound from 2348.6 (lower Bollinger band)
Expectations: drop to 2348.6 region followed by rebound towards 2427.6
1. Consider selling to 2348.6 region
2. Consider buying from 2348.6 to 2427.6 (in case of buy signals in 2348.6 region)
3. Consider setting sell limit orders in 2427.6 region
Monthly chart: we expect the price to test 48.79 region (middle Bollinger band). This support protects oil from falling to lower envelope. If oil reaches lower envelope region, it may start declining towards level of 35 dollars per barrel in mid-term (lower Bollinger band).
Weekly chart: here we have Bollinger envelopes range (36.20-60.77) where the price is getting ready for drop to lower envelope and further decline in the future.
Daily chart: here we have narrowed down flat corridor of 50.61-54.59 (lower Bollinger envelope), which is likely to be valid during this week.
Expectations: flat at 50.61-54.59
1. Consider selling to 50.61
2. Consider buying from 50.61 to 54.59
3. Consider setting sell limit orders from 54.59 region
Monthly chart: there are no reasons for the price to stop rotation around middle Bollinger band (1195.07). Bollinger envelopes are steady, ADX shows weakening trend.
Weekly chart: there is a valid trading area within Bollinger bands range (1122.00-1295.15)
Daily chart: here we have a narrowed down flat corridor of 1195.07-1262.49. There is also local bearish Over&Under pattern in 1248.50 region. Considering this set-up, if the price will break to the downside, it may continue declining and may break support at 1195.07.
Otherwise, we may see rise to 1262.49.
Core scenario – rise to 1248.50 region followed by decline towards 1195.07
Alternative scenario – upward breakout of 1248.50 and 1262.49 touch.
1. Consider selling from 1248.50 region with stop-loss above 1262.49 and take-profit at 1195.07
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