Hollande: “There Are Challenges From The New US Administration”

While France has so far managed to avoid falling into Trump’s attention span, that may change after French President Francois Hollande said the Trump administration was proving a “challenge” for Europe, according to AFP.

Speaking at a press conference in Berlin after meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is expected to speak by phone with Donald Trump tomorrow, Hollande said “to be honest, there are challenges from the new US administration; challenges regarding rules of commerce, regarding the way we think conflicts across the world should be solved.”

“Of course, we need to speak to Donald Trump, because he was elected by the US [citizens] to be their president, but we should speak to him from the European point of view, promoting our interests and values.”

Hollande also warned that Europe is under internal threat of populism: “Let’s speak honestly, what threatens Europe doesn’t come from outside,” he said. “It’s the rise of extremism, which uses outside [forces] to create internal division. And facing the internal threat of populism, one should address the people, and tell them that their interests, values, their future are connected with what we decide here, in Europe and for Europe.”

Merkel echoed the statement by her French colleague, saying that “Europe faces big internal and external challenges which we … can only master by working together.”

“We need a clear, common commitment to the European Union, to what we have accomplished, and to the values of our liberal democracies,” she added.

It is certain that the rise of “populist” forces in her own Germany will be one of the topics touched upon when Merkel speaks to Trump tomorrow.

Hollande’s caution about the Trump admin followed a statement by his Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, who when discussing Theresa May’s visit with Trump on Friday said yesterday that“Madame May can go see whoever she wants. I understand she goes to see the new U.S. president given the history between the U.S. and the U.K” However, he added, “she is not going there to negotiate,” Sapin says in interview in Brussels. “Neither she nor Mister Trump are in a position to negotiate. It’s a courtesy visit.”

Both May and Trump will look forward to proving him wrong.

The post Hollande: “There Are Challenges From The New US Administration” appeared first on crude-oil.top.

Hollande: “There Are Challenges From The New US Administration”

While France has so far managed to avoid falling into Trump’s attention span, that may change after French President Francois Hollande said the Trump administration was proving a “challenge” for Europe, according to AFP.

Speaking at a press conference in Berlin after meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is expected to speak by phone with Donald Trump tomorrow, Hollande said “to be honest, there are challenges from the new US administration; challenges regarding rules of commerce, regarding the way we think conflicts across the world should be solved.”

“Of course, we need to speak to Donald Trump, because he was elected by the US [citizens] to be their president, but we should speak to him from the European point of view, promoting our interests and values.”

Hollande also warned that Europe is under internal threat of populism: “Let’s speak honestly, what threatens Europe doesn’t come from outside,” he said. “It’s the rise of extremism, which uses outside [forces] to create internal division. And facing the internal threat of populism, one should address the people, and tell them that their interests, values, their future are connected with what we decide here, in Europe and for Europe.”

Merkel echoed the statement by her French colleague, saying that “Europe faces big internal and external challenges which we … can only master by working together.”

“We need a clear, common commitment to the European Union, to what we have accomplished, and to the values of our liberal democracies,” she added.

It is certain that the rise of “populist” forces in her own Germany will be one of the topics touched upon when Merkel speaks to Trump tomorrow.

Hollande’s caution about the Trump admin followed a statement by his Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, who when discussing Theresa May’s visit with Trump on Friday said yesterday that“Madame May can go see whoever she wants. I understand she goes to see the new U.S. president given the history between the U.S. and the U.K” However, he added, “she is not going there to negotiate,” Sapin says in interview in Brussels. “Neither she nor Mister Trump are in a position to negotiate. It’s a courtesy visit.”

Both May and Trump will look forward to proving him wrong.

The post Hollande: “There Are Challenges From The New US Administration” appeared first on crude-oil.top.

Frontrunning: January 27

  • Mexico Dispute Could Overshadow May’s Free-Trade Message (BBG)
  • NATO, Russia and trade top the agenda for Trump talks with Britain’s May (Reuters)
  • Trump’s plan for import tax worsens crisis with Mexico (Reuters)
  • Nafta’s U.S. Impact is Modest (WSJ)
  • Republicans Are Making Little Progress on Their Obamacare Repeal Strategy (BBG)
  • Ghost of 1990s Is Haunting Dollar and Slowing Further Gains (BBG)
  • Trump’s hopes for Syria safe zones may force decision on Assad (Reuters)
  • Trump’s Gamble: Luring Countries Into Deals (WSJ)
  • Trump tells Republican lawmakers: Enough talk. Time to deliver (Reuters)
  • UBS Clients Pull $15 Billion in Quarter as Margins Decline (BBG)
  • GDP Growth Is Forecast to Have Slowed to 2.2% in Fourth Quarter (WSJ)
  • Will Trump Make This $7 Billion Clean-Coal Plant Irrelevant? (BBG)
  • Border Wall Tax on Mexican Crude Oil Would Cost U.S. Drivers (BBG)
  • Weak exports may crimp U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth (Reuters)
  • France’s Neighbors Sound Alarm Over Election ‘Catastrophe’ Risk (BBG)
  • Jilting Jefferies Said to Cost Credit Suisse Bankers $10 Million (BBG)
  • Fed to Align Itself With Government Hiring Freeze (WSJ)
  • Challenging the U.S., Moscow Pushes Into Afghanistan (WSJ)
  • Volkswagen’s Ex-CEO Winterkorn Probed on Suspicion of Fraud (WSJ)
  • Toshiba to sell part of chip business, puts overseas nuclear ops under review (Reuters)
  • Turkey threatens to cancel Greece migration deal in soldiers’ extradition row (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Toshiba Corp will spin off its computer memory-chip unit at the end of March, the company said Friday, in an effort by the cash-strapped industrial conglomerate to raise fresh capital for the businesses that require large investments. http://on.wsj.com/2jvBA2f

– Verizon Communications Inc is exploring a combination with Charter Communications Inc that would unite two giants in search of growth in a rapidly consolidating media and telecom landscape. http://on.wsj.com/2jvuzyL

– Ant Financial Services Group, which works closely with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and is controlled by Alibaba founder Jack Ma, announced a deal Thursday to buy U.S. money-transfer provider MoneyGram International Inc for $880 million. http://on.wsj.com/2jzKUQs

– The Securities and Exchange Commission accused two former executives of Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC of spearheading a long-running bribery scheme that funneled tens of millions of dollars to high-level officials in Africa. http://on.wsj.com/2jvBBTZ

– Brazilian police on Thursday declared former billionaire businessman Eike Batista a fugitive from the law and said they would ask other countries to help track him down, even as his lawyer said he would return to Brazil as soon as possible. Batista, once Brazil’s richest man, is sought in relation to a wide-ranging corruption scandal. http://on.wsj.com/2jvlea6

– Tesla Motors Inc is accusing the former director of its Autopilot program and the former tech guru behind Google’s self-driving car of improperly recruiting the auto maker’s engineers to create their own autonomous-car startup. http://on.wsj.com/2jvlOom

– Publicis Groupe SA tapped Arthur Sadoun, the advertising giant’s 45-year-old creative chief, to replace longtime Chief Executive Maurice Levy, part of a succession plan to steady a firm buffeted by massive changes in consumer behavior and technology. http://on.wsj.com/2jvA0O5

 

FT

Arthur Sadoun will take over as chief executive of advertising company Publicis Groupe SA from longtime CEO Maurice Levy on June 1, the company said on Thursday.

Britain and the United States should stand united and confront new challenges, including the rise of economies in Asia that people fear could “eclipse the West,” Prime Minister Theresa May said in a foreign policy speech to congressional Republicans in Philadelphia on Thursday.

Tighter border controls after Britain’s exit from the European Union will result in the hospitality, agriculture, construction and manufacturing sectors to compete against each other for a smaller pool of low-skilled migrants, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said in a new report.

Banks, insurers and traders that comply with reinforced global financial sector rules should be allowed to operate unhindered across the world to spur economic growth and trade, Financial Conduct Authority Chief Executive Andrew Bailey said on Thursday.

 

NYT

– The White House is drafting a presidential directive that calls on Defense Secretary James Mattis to devise plans to more aggressively strike the Islamic State, which could include American artillery on the ground in Syria and Army attack helicopters to support an assault on the groups capital, Raqqa, officials said. http://nyti.ms/2jasrxG

– The Trump administration is pulling back advertisements that encourage people to sign up for health insurance under former President Barack Obama’s health care law. http://nyti.ms/2jaoKYU

– President Donald Trump’s chief White House strategist, Stephen Bannon said in an interview that media should be embarrassed and humiliated and keep its mouth shut and just listen for a while. http://nyti.ms/2janZiC

– Microsoft Corp released financial results for the last three months of 2016, reporting 4 percent growth in its overall earnings. http://nyti.ms/2javEx2

– Under a Reagan-era policy revived by President Donald Trump, the clinic on the University of Dakar campus in Senegal, may no longer be able to count on aid money from the United States Agency for International Development. http://nyti.ms/2jayimG

– President Donald Trump spoke by telephone with the acting director of the National Park Service the day after his inauguration to ask why someone from the agency had shared someone else’s Twitter Inc’s post giving an unflattering comparison of his inaugural crowd, according to Trump’s deputy press secretary. http://nyti.ms/2japqNZ

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** TransCanada Corp has taken U.S. President Donald Trump up on his invitation and has formally submitted a new application to the U.S. Department of State for its Keystone XL pipeline. https://tgam.ca/2kamjVW

** Canada’s housing agency has added Victoria to its list of real estate markets with problems, seeing danger signs in the British Columbia capital’s home values. https://tgam.ca/2kajxzW

** Hunter Harrison has sold his shares in Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd, shortly after quitting as chief executive officer of the Calgary company to pursue the top job at Florida-based railway CSX Corp. https://tgam.ca/2karqW7

** As Britain starts the process of leaving the European Union, Liam Fox, Britain’s international trade secretary, tried to assure Canadian businesses that robust trade between the two nations would not be disrupted. https://tgam.ca/2karzZP

NATIONAL POST

** Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp is not removing the red flag it raised three months ago for the housing market, saying it still sees strong overall evidence of problematic market conditions. http://bit.ly/2karLIl

** Metro Inc has reaffirmed its commitment to the Air Miles program after a report implied the grocery chain might be looking to drop the loyalty program in Ontario. http://bit.ly/2kakFUc

** RBC Global Asset Management chief economist Eric Lascelles on Thursday pushed back against fears over the impact of a Donald Trump presidency on Canada, saying protectionist trade policies could instead serve to hobble U.S. growth in the long term. http://bit.ly/2kahdc8

 

Britain

The Times

* British Ministers sneaked out the news that the UK would leave the European Atomic Energy Community, known as Euratom, within the notes accompanying the bill published yesterday to trigger Article 50, the process for leaving the European Union. http://bit.ly/2jkvMVZ

* Verizon and Charter Communications are exploring a near-$300 billion merger to create the largest telecommunications company in the world, it emerged yesterday. http://bit.ly/2jkt6rH

The Guardian

* Buoyant consumer spending kept the UK economy growing at the brisk pace of 0.6 percent in the final quarter of 2016, marking a strong finish to the year despite the Brexit vote. The initial estimate for fourth-quarter GDP from the Office for National Statistics matched the 0.6 percent growth recorded in the third and second quarters. http://bit.ly/2jkpOVr

* Hermes, the courier company that delivers parcels for John Lewis and Next, is facing a legal claim from workers who believe they are wrongly classed as self-employed, according to the Labour MP Frank Field. http://bit.ly/2jk9T9w

The Telegraph

* BT is at risk of having its credit rating cut over fears that the heavy blow to profits from its accounting scandal in Italy and a slump in big contracts will slow effort to reduce its debt pile. The ratings agency Moody’s has changed its outlook on BT from stable to negative in the wake of the company’s profit warning earlier this week. http://bit.ly/2juWVZQ

* Tata Steel UK’s pension fund is set to be spun off in a move that will ring-fence the business from future financial burdens flowing from the retirement scheme. Steel workers’ unions are advising their members to vote for a deal which would close the 15 billion pounds ($18.89 billion) scheme to future accruals, with members getting smaller payouts. http://bit.ly/2jv1hjL

Sky News

* The proprietors of The Daily Telegraph, Barclay brothers, are accelerating plans to cash in on record festive trading at Shop Direct, their retail business, by offloading a significant chunk of the 2 billion pound business. http://bit.ly/2juXcMi

* The British Government has announced plans to close one in 10 Jobcentres as part of plans for “under-used” buildings. http://bit.ly/2jvah8r

The Independent

* Paul Polman, the chief executive of Unilever, said Britain should “get used to” price rises triggered by a slump in the pound after the Brexit vote. http://ind.pn/2jvaoRp

* Barclays has reiterated that it will keep its global headquarters in London even after the UK leaves the EU, in response to media reports that it was planning on establishing a European headquarters in Dublin. http://ind.pn/2jv6Leb

 

The post Frontrunning: January 27 appeared first on crude-oil.top.

Frontrunning: January 27

  • Mexico Dispute Could Overshadow May’s Free-Trade Message (BBG)
  • NATO, Russia and trade top the agenda for Trump talks with Britain’s May (Reuters)
  • Trump’s plan for import tax worsens crisis with Mexico (Reuters)
  • Nafta’s U.S. Impact is Modest (WSJ)
  • Republicans Are Making Little Progress on Their Obamacare Repeal Strategy (BBG)
  • Ghost of 1990s Is Haunting Dollar and Slowing Further Gains (BBG)
  • Trump’s hopes for Syria safe zones may force decision on Assad (Reuters)
  • Trump’s Gamble: Luring Countries Into Deals (WSJ)
  • Trump tells Republican lawmakers: Enough talk. Time to deliver (Reuters)
  • UBS Clients Pull $15 Billion in Quarter as Margins Decline (BBG)
  • GDP Growth Is Forecast to Have Slowed to 2.2% in Fourth Quarter (WSJ)
  • Will Trump Make This $7 Billion Clean-Coal Plant Irrelevant? (BBG)
  • Border Wall Tax on Mexican Crude Oil Would Cost U.S. Drivers (BBG)
  • Weak exports may crimp U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth (Reuters)
  • France’s Neighbors Sound Alarm Over Election ‘Catastrophe’ Risk (BBG)
  • Jilting Jefferies Said to Cost Credit Suisse Bankers $10 Million (BBG)
  • Fed to Align Itself With Government Hiring Freeze (WSJ)
  • Challenging the U.S., Moscow Pushes Into Afghanistan (WSJ)
  • Volkswagen’s Ex-CEO Winterkorn Probed on Suspicion of Fraud (WSJ)
  • Toshiba to sell part of chip business, puts overseas nuclear ops under review (Reuters)
  • Turkey threatens to cancel Greece migration deal in soldiers’ extradition row (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Toshiba Corp will spin off its computer memory-chip unit at the end of March, the company said Friday, in an effort by the cash-strapped industrial conglomerate to raise fresh capital for the businesses that require large investments. http://on.wsj.com/2jvBA2f

– Verizon Communications Inc is exploring a combination with Charter Communications Inc that would unite two giants in search of growth in a rapidly consolidating media and telecom landscape. http://on.wsj.com/2jvuzyL

– Ant Financial Services Group, which works closely with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and is controlled by Alibaba founder Jack Ma, announced a deal Thursday to buy U.S. money-transfer provider MoneyGram International Inc for $880 million. http://on.wsj.com/2jzKUQs

– The Securities and Exchange Commission accused two former executives of Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC of spearheading a long-running bribery scheme that funneled tens of millions of dollars to high-level officials in Africa. http://on.wsj.com/2jvBBTZ

– Brazilian police on Thursday declared former billionaire businessman Eike Batista a fugitive from the law and said they would ask other countries to help track him down, even as his lawyer said he would return to Brazil as soon as possible. Batista, once Brazil’s richest man, is sought in relation to a wide-ranging corruption scandal. http://on.wsj.com/2jvlea6

– Tesla Motors Inc is accusing the former director of its Autopilot program and the former tech guru behind Google’s self-driving car of improperly recruiting the auto maker’s engineers to create their own autonomous-car startup. http://on.wsj.com/2jvlOom

– Publicis Groupe SA tapped Arthur Sadoun, the advertising giant’s 45-year-old creative chief, to replace longtime Chief Executive Maurice Levy, part of a succession plan to steady a firm buffeted by massive changes in consumer behavior and technology. http://on.wsj.com/2jvA0O5

 

FT

Arthur Sadoun will take over as chief executive of advertising company Publicis Groupe SA from longtime CEO Maurice Levy on June 1, the company said on Thursday.

Britain and the United States should stand united and confront new challenges, including the rise of economies in Asia that people fear could “eclipse the West,” Prime Minister Theresa May said in a foreign policy speech to congressional Republicans in Philadelphia on Thursday.

Tighter border controls after Britain’s exit from the European Union will result in the hospitality, agriculture, construction and manufacturing sectors to compete against each other for a smaller pool of low-skilled migrants, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said in a new report.

Banks, insurers and traders that comply with reinforced global financial sector rules should be allowed to operate unhindered across the world to spur economic growth and trade, Financial Conduct Authority Chief Executive Andrew Bailey said on Thursday.

 

NYT

– The White House is drafting a presidential directive that calls on Defense Secretary James Mattis to devise plans to more aggressively strike the Islamic State, which could include American artillery on the ground in Syria and Army attack helicopters to support an assault on the groups capital, Raqqa, officials said. http://nyti.ms/2jasrxG

– The Trump administration is pulling back advertisements that encourage people to sign up for health insurance under former President Barack Obama’s health care law. http://nyti.ms/2jaoKYU

– President Donald Trump’s chief White House strategist, Stephen Bannon said in an interview that media should be embarrassed and humiliated and keep its mouth shut and just listen for a while. http://nyti.ms/2janZiC

– Microsoft Corp released financial results for the last three months of 2016, reporting 4 percent growth in its overall earnings. http://nyti.ms/2javEx2

– Under a Reagan-era policy revived by President Donald Trump, the clinic on the University of Dakar campus in Senegal, may no longer be able to count on aid money from the United States Agency for International Development. http://nyti.ms/2jayimG

– President Donald Trump spoke by telephone with the acting director of the National Park Service the day after his inauguration to ask why someone from the agency had shared someone else’s Twitter Inc’s post giving an unflattering comparison of his inaugural crowd, according to Trump’s deputy press secretary. http://nyti.ms/2japqNZ

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** TransCanada Corp has taken U.S. President Donald Trump up on his invitation and has formally submitted a new application to the U.S. Department of State for its Keystone XL pipeline. https://tgam.ca/2kamjVW

** Canada’s housing agency has added Victoria to its list of real estate markets with problems, seeing danger signs in the British Columbia capital’s home values. https://tgam.ca/2kajxzW

** Hunter Harrison has sold his shares in Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd, shortly after quitting as chief executive officer of the Calgary company to pursue the top job at Florida-based railway CSX Corp. https://tgam.ca/2karqW7

** As Britain starts the process of leaving the European Union, Liam Fox, Britain’s international trade secretary, tried to assure Canadian businesses that robust trade between the two nations would not be disrupted. https://tgam.ca/2karzZP

NATIONAL POST

** Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp is not removing the red flag it raised three months ago for the housing market, saying it still sees strong overall evidence of problematic market conditions. http://bit.ly/2karLIl

** Metro Inc has reaffirmed its commitment to the Air Miles program after a report implied the grocery chain might be looking to drop the loyalty program in Ontario. http://bit.ly/2kakFUc

** RBC Global Asset Management chief economist Eric Lascelles on Thursday pushed back against fears over the impact of a Donald Trump presidency on Canada, saying protectionist trade policies could instead serve to hobble U.S. growth in the long term. http://bit.ly/2kahdc8

 

Britain

The Times

* British Ministers sneaked out the news that the UK would leave the European Atomic Energy Community, known as Euratom, within the notes accompanying the bill published yesterday to trigger Article 50, the process for leaving the European Union. http://bit.ly/2jkvMVZ

* Verizon and Charter Communications are exploring a near-$300 billion merger to create the largest telecommunications company in the world, it emerged yesterday. http://bit.ly/2jkt6rH

The Guardian

* Buoyant consumer spending kept the UK economy growing at the brisk pace of 0.6 percent in the final quarter of 2016, marking a strong finish to the year despite the Brexit vote. The initial estimate for fourth-quarter GDP from the Office for National Statistics matched the 0.6 percent growth recorded in the third and second quarters. http://bit.ly/2jkpOVr

* Hermes, the courier company that delivers parcels for John Lewis and Next, is facing a legal claim from workers who believe they are wrongly classed as self-employed, according to the Labour MP Frank Field. http://bit.ly/2jk9T9w

The Telegraph

* BT is at risk of having its credit rating cut over fears that the heavy blow to profits from its accounting scandal in Italy and a slump in big contracts will slow effort to reduce its debt pile. The ratings agency Moody’s has changed its outlook on BT from stable to negative in the wake of the company’s profit warning earlier this week. http://bit.ly/2juWVZQ

* Tata Steel UK’s pension fund is set to be spun off in a move that will ring-fence the business from future financial burdens flowing from the retirement scheme. Steel workers’ unions are advising their members to vote for a deal which would close the 15 billion pounds ($18.89 billion) scheme to future accruals, with members getting smaller payouts. http://bit.ly/2jv1hjL

Sky News

* The proprietors of The Daily Telegraph, Barclay brothers, are accelerating plans to cash in on record festive trading at Shop Direct, their retail business, by offloading a significant chunk of the 2 billion pound business. http://bit.ly/2juXcMi

* The British Government has announced plans to close one in 10 Jobcentres as part of plans for “under-used” buildings. http://bit.ly/2jvah8r

The Independent

* Paul Polman, the chief executive of Unilever, said Britain should “get used to” price rises triggered by a slump in the pound after the Brexit vote. http://ind.pn/2jvaoRp

* Barclays has reiterated that it will keep its global headquarters in London even after the UK leaves the EU, in response to media reports that it was planning on establishing a European headquarters in Dublin. http://ind.pn/2jv6Leb

 

The post Frontrunning: January 27 appeared first on crude-oil.top.

Putin, Trump To Talk By Phone On Saturday: “Getting Along With Russia Is A Great Thing”

Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will have their first official discussions since the inauguration in a phone call planned for Saturday, the Kremlin said, a first step towards what Trump has billed as a normalization of relations after three years of tensions marked by open hostility during the Obama regime.

The two leaders are scheduled to exchange views on Russia-U.S. relations while Putin will congratulate Trump on his Jan. 20 inauguration, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call Friday cited by Bloomberg. Trump and Putin last spoke in November, when Putin rang Trump to congratulate him on winning the presidential election. Asked by reporters if Ukraine would come up, Peskov said: “This is the first telephone contact since President Trump took office, so one should hardly expect that this phone call will involve substantive discussions across the whole range of issues. We’ll see, let’s be patient.”

Trump has said in the past that, as part of the rapprochement he is seeking with Russia, he is prepared to review the sanctions that Washington imposed on Russia over its 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula. Such a move is likely to face resistance from both domestic and foreign politicians, who argue sanctions should only be eased if Moscow complies with the West’s conditions on Ukraine. Peskov said he had no information on reports that Trump is considering lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia imposed over the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

If Putin and Trump can establish a rapport, it could pave the way for deals on Ukraine and Syria, two sources of friction during the administration of Barack Obama according to Reuters.

Trump and Putin have never met and it was unclear how their very different personalities would gel. Trump is a flamboyant real estate deal-maker who often acts on gut instinct, while Putin is a former Soviet spy who calculates each step methodically.

Trump has repeatedly spoken about ending the enmity that has dragged U.S.-Russia relations to their lowest ebb since the Cold War. In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News on Thursday night, Trump said it would be to the advantage of both Russia and the US to mend ties and pool their efforts in the fight against terrorism. “I don’t know Putin, but if we can get along with Russia that’s a great thing, it’s good for Russia, it’s good for us, we go out together and knock the hell out of ISIS, because that’s a real sickness,” he said.

“Wouldn’t it be nice if we actually got along with people? Wouldn’t it be nice if we actually got along, as an example, with Russia? I am all for it,” Trump told a news conference in July last year.

Putin, at a news conference in December, said he would reciprocate. “Mr Trump …. said he believes it’s right to normalize Russian-American ties and said it definitely won’t be any worse, because it couldn’t be worse. I agree with him. Together we’ll think about how to improve things.”

For Putin there is much to gain: he is expected to run for re-election next year, but is hampered by a sluggish economy. A softening or removal of sanctions would allow Western investment and credit to flow in, lifting growth and strengthening Putin’s election prospects. 

For Trump, a rapprochement with Russia carries political risks. Powerful Congressional figures say they will block any move to lift Ukraine-related sanctions.  That would displease some of Washington’s European allies too. The source in Berlin familiar with plans for the Trump-Merkel call said it would be “unpleasant” if Trump were to lift sanctions against Russia, but added: “It doesn’t mean that we go along.” The European Union has its own set of sanctions against Russia that it imposed over Ukraine. Trump is also vulnerable to allegations at home of being too cozy with Moscow.

In addition to to his Saturday phone call with Putin, Trump will also have a telephone conversation the same day with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and that call is expected to focus on Russia, according to a Reuters source. Expect many tweets to follow both phone calls.

 

The post Putin, Trump To Talk By Phone On Saturday: “Getting Along With Russia Is A Great Thing” appeared first on crude-oil.top.

Putin, Trump To Talk By Phone On Saturday: “Getting Along With Russia Is A Great Thing”

Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will have their first official discussions since the inauguration in a phone call planned for Saturday, the Kremlin said, a first step towards what Trump has billed as a normalization of relations after three years of tensions marked by open hostility during the Obama regime.

The two leaders are scheduled to exchange views on Russia-U.S. relations while Putin will congratulate Trump on his Jan. 20 inauguration, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call Friday cited by Bloomberg. Trump and Putin last spoke in November, when Putin rang Trump to congratulate him on winning the presidential election. Asked by reporters if Ukraine would come up, Peskov said: “This is the first telephone contact since President Trump took office, so one should hardly expect that this phone call will involve substantive discussions across the whole range of issues. We’ll see, let’s be patient.”

Trump has said in the past that, as part of the rapprochement he is seeking with Russia, he is prepared to review the sanctions that Washington imposed on Russia over its 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula. Such a move is likely to face resistance from both domestic and foreign politicians, who argue sanctions should only be eased if Moscow complies with the West’s conditions on Ukraine. Peskov said he had no information on reports that Trump is considering lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia imposed over the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

If Putin and Trump can establish a rapport, it could pave the way for deals on Ukraine and Syria, two sources of friction during the administration of Barack Obama according to Reuters.

Trump and Putin have never met and it was unclear how their very different personalities would gel. Trump is a flamboyant real estate deal-maker who often acts on gut instinct, while Putin is a former Soviet spy who calculates each step methodically.

Trump has repeatedly spoken about ending the enmity that has dragged U.S.-Russia relations to their lowest ebb since the Cold War. In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News on Thursday night, Trump said it would be to the advantage of both Russia and the US to mend ties and pool their efforts in the fight against terrorism. “I don’t know Putin, but if we can get along with Russia that’s a great thing, it’s good for Russia, it’s good for us, we go out together and knock the hell out of ISIS, because that’s a real sickness,” he said.

“Wouldn’t it be nice if we actually got along with people? Wouldn’t it be nice if we actually got along, as an example, with Russia? I am all for it,” Trump told a news conference in July last year.

Putin, at a news conference in December, said he would reciprocate. “Mr Trump …. said he believes it’s right to normalize Russian-American ties and said it definitely won’t be any worse, because it couldn’t be worse. I agree with him. Together we’ll think about how to improve things.”

For Putin there is much to gain: he is expected to run for re-election next year, but is hampered by a sluggish economy. A softening or removal of sanctions would allow Western investment and credit to flow in, lifting growth and strengthening Putin’s election prospects. 

For Trump, a rapprochement with Russia carries political risks. Powerful Congressional figures say they will block any move to lift Ukraine-related sanctions.  That would displease some of Washington’s European allies too. The source in Berlin familiar with plans for the Trump-Merkel call said it would be “unpleasant” if Trump were to lift sanctions against Russia, but added: “It doesn’t mean that we go along.” The European Union has its own set of sanctions against Russia that it imposed over Ukraine. Trump is also vulnerable to allegations at home of being too cozy with Moscow.

In addition to to his Saturday phone call with Putin, Trump will also have a telephone conversation the same day with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and that call is expected to focus on Russia, according to a Reuters source. Expect many tweets to follow both phone calls.

 

The post Putin, Trump To Talk By Phone On Saturday: “Getting Along With Russia Is A Great Thing” appeared first on crude-oil.top.

Dollar Rebound Continues, Europe Stocks Pressured By Banks As Much Of Asia Goes On Holiday

US equity futures are unchanged, trading near record highs after digesting a spate of earnings results on Thursday. The dollar pared its weekly loss as the yen and pound slid, while gold headed for its longest slump in three months. European equities fell and markets in Asia were mixed, while markets in China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam were closed Friday for the start of Lunar New Year. Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore had shortened sessions.

The dollar continued its recovery against a basket of other currencies on Friday, while banks dragged European shares slightly lower following underwhelming results from Swiss major UBS. The two-day recovery comes after the dollar suffered a 4 percent drop in the three weeks from Jan. 3 as doubts emerged about how Trump’s policies will play out for the currency, particularly after both Trump and Treasury Secretary-designate Steven Mnuchin hinted at concerns over its strength. The yen extended its biggest decline in a week and Japanese bonds rose as the BOJ stepped in to buy more debt than expected. The pound also slid ahead of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s meeting with Donald Trump.

“The (dollar) has experienced a powerful rebound re-establishing post-U.S. election relationships between the performance of risk assets and U.S. bond yields on the one hand and the (dollar) on the other hand,” said Morgan Stanley FX strategists led by Hans Redekker, in a note to clients.

Trump suggested overnight he would push ahead with a 20 percent border tax on Mexico, spurring a slump on the peso and refocusing market expectations on his pro-business policies which, along with healthy corporate results, helped stocks on Wall Street to fresh record highs. However, the peso has since rebounded after the White House backtracked on its border tax proposal, when Sean Spicer said it was only “theoretical.”

On the political calendar, all eyes will be on the upcoming meeting between UK PM Theresa May and Donald Trump today. She will be the first leader to meet the President and a lot of attention will be placed on the outcome. May wants to try to pave the way for a free trade deal with the US post-Brexit and Mr Trump, in spite of his protectionist biases, would probably like to help the UK prosper if for no other reason than to help prove his point that the EU is flawed and the UK is better off outside of it. So although it’s a very early meeting where nothing will be decided it’ll be interesting to hear from the leaders afterwards. Trump’s ability to be confrontational on the global stage was demonstrated yesterday as we saw US-Mexico trade relations continue to grow strained as Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto officially cancelled a planned meeting with Trump as the latter continued to signal intentions of building “the wall” and substantially increasing border security. He said that if the Mexicans had no intention of paying for the wall they should cancel next week’s trip. This is precisely what they’ve done.

Back to markets, where the global equity rally fizzled modestly after U.S. benchmarks reached all-time highs this week, as corporate results from Caterpillar Inc. to Microsoft Corp. delivered a mixed picture on the state of the American economy ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week. The Bank of Japan also meets and is expected to leave policy unchanged as recovering exports, strength in production and buoyant oil prices support reflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%, while Japan’s Topix climbed 0.3%, bringing it near its highest point in more than a year. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.8 percent as the nation’s markets reopened after a holiday. India’s Sensex, also back from a holiday, gained 0.7 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.1 percent, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.4 percent for its highest close since October 2015.

European stocks were headed for a weekly gain of about 1 percent though were slightly lower on Friday as weakness in the banking shares weighed. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3% following three days of gains.  A fall in profits sent UBS shares down more than 3% as investors locked in some gains following a strong rally in financials stocks following the U.S. election. The European banking index fell 1.2 percent.

In the UK, the FTSE was also slightly lower but outperformed other regional benchmarks supported by merger activity as leading supermarket operator Tesco struck a deal to buy up wholesaler Booker to create what it claims will be Britain’s “leading food business”. The deal values Booker at 205.3p a share, or £3.7bn, a premium of 12 per cent over its closing price of 183.1p a share on January 26 according to the FT. Booker acquired grocery chains Budgens and Londis in 2015 and has over 170 cash and carry locations in the UK. Tesco said Booker shareholders will receive 42.6p in cash and 0.86 in new Tesco shares. The merger will result in Booker shareholders owning 16 per cent of the combined company. Tesco shares surged 10 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index were down less than 0.1 percent. The benchmark slipped 0.1 percent Thursday after rising past 2,300 for the first time, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average extended an all-time high.

Benchmark German bonds are headed for their worst week since the aftermath of November’s U.S. election on Friday, as Trump’s first week in office fuels expectations of inflation and growth-boosting policies in the world’s biggest economy. The yield on 10Y Treasuries was up one basis point at 2.52%. It slipped one basis point Thursday after an auction of $28 billion in seven-year notes drew a record amount of buying from indirect bidders, signaling interest from foreign central banks and mutual funds. Japanese 10-year yields fell one basis point to 0.08%. As reported last night, the BOJ boosted the amount of 5-to-10-year bonds it buys in its outright purchase operations, underscoring a commitment to keep its yield-curve target.

In a report citing EPFR data, Bank of America reported that investor flows continue to point to a preference for so-called “reflation” trades. Funds investing in TIPS,  high-yield bonds and Japanese equities, attracted inflows over the past week, the data showed. “But the re-positioning feels grudging and flows have yet to show big asset allocation capitulation out of bonds into stocks,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett said.

In commodity markets, oil prices gave up earlier gains as rising crude output from the United States was seen offsetting efforts by OPEC and other producers to prop up the market by cutting supplies. Trading was choppy as volumes were lighter than average with much of Asia closed due to the start of the Lunar New Year holiday. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $55.98 per barrel, down 0.5 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 0.2 percent at $53.67 a barrel

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2292
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.5% to 366
  • FTSE 100 down 0.1% to 7152
  • DAX down 0.3% to 11816
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.48%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 2bps to 2.26%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.58%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.4% to 399.2
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down less than 0.1% to 142
  • Nikkei 225 up 0.3% to 19467
  • Hang Seng down less than 0.1% to 23361
  • Shanghai Composite closed
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5714
  • US 10-yr yield up less than 1bp to 2.51%
  • Dollar Index up 0.24% to 100.62
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.7% to $53.41
  • Brent Futures down 0.9% to $55.71
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,184
  • Silver spot down 0.3% to $16.76

Top News

  • U.S. Edges Toward Trade War as Trump Clash With Mexico Escalates
  • Microsoft, Intel, Alphabet Results Buoyed by Cloud Boom
  • PayPal Has Been Talking With Amazon on Payments, CEO Says
  • Morgan Stanley to Reduce Wealth Fees Even With Rule Uncertainty
  • Resignation Threatens to Bring Federal Pipeline Rulings to Halt
  • Biggest U.S. Takeover in China in Decade Hangs on Board Spat
  • Tesco Agrees to Buy Wholesaler Booker for About $4.6 Billion
  • UBS Clients Pull Net $15 Billion in Quarter as Margins Decline
  • Wynn’s New Macau Palace Helps Chinese Unit Beat Estimates
  • Asahi Looks for China Beer Exit After Tsingtao Disappointment
  • Toshiba Outlines Plans to Raise Capital Via Chip Stake Sale
  • Hong Kong Yuan Deposits Post Record Monthly Drop in December
  • U.S. Steel to Negotiate With Hesteel on Sale of Slovak Unit: HN
  • Ford’s Farley Sees Up to $600m Impact From GBP Drop in ’17: Sky
  • Lions Gate in Talks to Sell Epix Stake to MGM, Viacom: Reuters
  • Digital Bridge Said to Buy Vantage Data Centers for >$1b: Reuters
  • Trump, Merkel Expected to Talk by Phone Saturday: Reuters

In Europe, shares trade lower but only marginally (EuroStoxx 50 -0.6%). The main equity story of the day is Tesco’s (TSCO LN) GBP 3.7bIn merger with wholesaler Bookers (BOK LN). Elsewhere, the banking sector is the worst performing sector with UBS down after an earnings update this morning. Aside from stock specific stories, macro newsflow has remained light for the morning thus far. Bunds are trading sideways this morning stuck with a tight range between 161.35 to 161.80. Italian BTP’s initially showed some weakness again, wider 3bps vs Bund: 10yr yield 2.26%, spread 178bps this after further weakness seen yesterday after the Italian court ruling regarding voting laws. However, Italian paper over the course of the morning has been able to reverse the initial downside to pare the move with little in the way of new fundamental catalysts to sway price action in what has been an erratic morning thus far. Of note, after market we see rating agencies rate Spain, UK and Turkey.

Top European News

  • Tesco Agrees to Buy Wholesaler Booker for About $4.6 Billion: CEO Lewis makes M&A debut, entering out-of-home food market
  • U.S. Regulators Hang Tough at Basel as Trump Rollback Looms: U.S. will push hard for consensus on output floor, Petrou says
  • Betting on Nordic Rain Pays Better Than Your Average Hedge Fund:Danish manager made 15 percent, 5 times commodity fund index

Asia equity markets traded mostly higher despite a mixed lead from Wall Street where earnings were in focus and the DJIA further extended above 20,000, although upside in the Asia-Pac region was reserved amid holiday-thinned trade. ASX 200 (+0.8%) outperformed as it played catch up on return from yesterday’s public holiday and took its first opportunity to react to the DJIA conquering the 20k level, while Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by a weaker JPY. Hang Seng (+0.1%) slightly lagged on early profit taking and position-squaring heading into the Lunar New Year, with a lack of demand also attributed to various market closures as mainland China, South Korea and Taiwan remained shut for holiday. 10yr JGBs were higher with outperformance in the long-end after the BoJ announced its bond buying operations, in which it increased purchases of government debt with 5yr-10yr maturities to JPY 450b1n from a previous JPY 410bIn.

Top Asian News

  • Jakarta Stocks Miss Gain as Governor Race Takes Islamic Turn: Indonesia is only SEAsian market to see stock outflows in 2017
  • Little Room to Beat India Cash Ban Gloom With Budget Goodies: Overspending triggers risk of downgrade due to wide deficit
  • Biggest U.S. Takeover in China in Decade Hangs on Board Spat: Majority board asks Air Products to proceed with due diligence

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 percent as of 8:17 a.m. in London, after jumping 0.6 percent Thursday. The measure is down 0.3 percent for the week, headed for a fifth straight weekly decline — the longest stretch since May 2015. It hit the highest in more than a decade in early January.  The yen slid 0.5 percent to 115.13 per dollar after dropping 1.1 percent the previous session. The currency is down 0.4 percent for the week, its worst showing since Dec. 16. The pound fell 0.4 percent following a 0.3 percent decline Thursday, though it remains in line for a 1.4 percent weekly gain. The peso dropped 0.6 percent, extending Thursday’s 0.7 percent retreat. Mexico’s president scrapped his trip to Washington after Donald Trump doubled down on campaign pledges to rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement and charge his southern neighbor to build a border wall.
The Turkish lira continued to touch new lows, falling 0.8 percent.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $53.79 a barrel after surging 2 percent Thursday on optimism that OPEC and other producing nations would adhere to their pledged output cuts. The standout mover in commodities was Gold, which retreated 0.4 percent to $1,184.32 an ounce after dropping 1 percent Thursday. It is headed for a fourth straight loss, which would be the longest slump since October as the combined pressure from USD upside and risk on sentiment see the safe haven ‘metal’ offloaded. We still have room before we get to the Dec lows ahead of USD1120, but the pressure continues for now. USD based losses having limited impact on Copper, similarly Oil prices showing a small down in this respect also. A standout gainer is Nickel, which has been rising on strong demand out of China (see Copper also), whilst inventories have been falling.

Taking a look at some of the upcoming data today, in Europe we saw the December M3 money supply numbers (+5.0%, Exp. +4.9% YoY, vs. +4.8% previous) for the Euro area and the January consumer confidence indicator in France (100, vs 100 expected; 99 previous). In the US the advance Q4 GDP print (+2.2% QoQ annualized; +3.5% previous) will be closely watched alongside preliminary data on durable and capital goods orders in December, followed by the final University of Michigan sentiment reading for January (98.1 expected; 98.1 previous). So a fairly busy end to the week alongside the Trump/May meeting.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, 4Q A, est. 2.2% (prior 3.5%)
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Dec. P, est. 2.5% (prior -4.5%)
  • Capital Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air, Dec. P, est. 0.2% (prior 0.9%)
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, Jan. F, est. 98.1 (prior 98.1)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The state rooms at the White House will no doubt be prepared for UK PM Theresa May’s visit to see Donald Trump today. She will be the first leader to meet the President and a lot of attention will be placed on the outcome. Mrs May wants to try to pave the way for a free trade deal with the US post-Brexit and Mr Trump, in spite of his protectionist biases, would probably like to help the UK prosper if for no other reason than to help prove his point that the EU is flawed and the UK is better off outside of it. So although it’s a very early meeting where nothing will be decided it’ll be interesting to hear from the leaders afterwards. Mr Trump’s ability to be confrontational on the global stage was demonstrated yesterday as we saw US-Mexico trade relations continue to grow strained as Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto officially cancelled a planned meeting with Mr Trump as the latter continued to signal intentions of building “the wall” and substantially increasing border security. He said that if the Mexicans had no intention of paying for the wall they should cancel next week’s trip. This is precisely what they’ve done. The Peso was down over 1% after the news and the Bovespa -1.4% yesterday. The story took a further twist later as after US markets closed White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer suggested that “When you look at the plan that’s taking shape now, using comprehensive tax reform as a means to tax imports from countries that we have a trade deficit from, like Mexico, if you tax that $50 billion at 20 percent of imports……… we can do $10 billion a year and easily pay for the wall just through that mechanism alone.” After only 4 days of Mr Trump’s presidency this is escalating pretty quickly. Despite volatility being very low now I can’t see this being a permanent feature of 2017 even if overall growth is eventually higher.

Over to markets and global equity bourses were largely mixed yesterday. Broader US equities ran out of steam with the S&P500 -0.07% on the day although the Dow edged up +0.16%. European equities maintained momentum with the Stoxx up +0.25% on the day, driven largely by the healthcare sector (+1.6%). At the other end of the risk spectrum, bonds generally sold off for most of the day although a late US rally led to UST 10yr falling 1bps (4-5bps off the highs) after German 10yr yields climbed +2bps earlier, while UK 10yr yields rose by +4 bps. Euro periphery bonds also sold off with 10yr Italian BTP yields rising by +12bps likely on the back of Wednesday’s court ruling which our own Marco Stringa thinks encourages fragile coalition governments going forward with little chance of serious structural reform. It also perhaps increases the chances of an early election. See yesterday’s EMR with a link to Marco’s piece for more on this.

On the commodity spectrum, crude rose by +1.9% and to around 3-week highs and actually fairly close to 18-month highs. In Asia the BoJ have been active again this morning buying 450bn of 5-10 year paper which has been seen as an attempt to prevent the 10 year climbing further. We hit 0.085% yesterday and many think that the BoJ zero yield target for 10 years has an upper bound of around 0.1%. The  10yr has rallied 1.4% today to 0.067% as we type. We think this area of the curve could face pressure as the year progresses if we’re right on global yields. Remember that the BoJ implemented their change of direction (yield and yield curve targeting) in September last year which was pretty much the lowest level for government bond yields at a global level in history. Elsewhere in Asia the Nikkei is +0.2% and the Hang Seng was slightly lower before the early close with Chinese markets off for Lunar New Year. Many other markets in Asia have closed early with China extending the closure next week.

Staying with Asia, it is worth highlighting that our Chinese economists have published the first edition of a new monthly publication entitled China Macro in Charts. This report aims to provide a comprehensive set of charts tracking, amongst other things, developments in economic activity, trade, inflation, financial markets and fiscal policy.

The data out of Europe yesterday was broadly positive. The GfK consumer confidence reading from Germany for February improved more than expected (10.2 vs. 10 expected; 9.9 previous). We also saw the advance Q4 GDP reading for the UK which beat expectations at +0.6% QoQ (vs. +0.5% expected; +0.6% Q3), although there were concerns about the unbalanced nature of the growth – services accounted for nearly the entire expansion while production and construction sectors dragged on growth.

We had a busy day over in the US where we saw a more mixed bag of data. First we saw the advance goods trade balance data for December where the deficit decreased (-$65.0b vs. -$65.3b expected; -$65.3 previous) while preliminary wholesale inventories unexpectedly grew at +1.0% mom in December (vs. +0.1% expected). The Chicago Fed National Activity Index reading for December was also unexpectedly positive (0.14 vs. -0.05 expected) while the conference board leading index came in line with expectations (+0.5%). Flash PMIs for January beat expectations with the services PMI ticking up to 55.1 (vs. 54.4 expected) and thus driving the flash composite up to 55.4 (vs. 54.1 previous). Labour market data was on the weaker side as initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 259k (vs. 247k expected; 237k previous), and new home sales for December disappointed at 536k (vs. 588k expected; 598k previous). The claims number may still have seasonal distortions in after a strong Xmas period.

Taking a look at some of the upcoming data today, in Europe we will see the December M3 money supply numbers (+4.9% YoY expected vs. +4.8% previous) for the Euro area and the January consumer confidence indicator in France (100 expected; vs. 99 previous). Over in the US the advance Q4 GDP print (+2.2% QoQ annualized; +3.5% previous) will be closely watched alongside preliminary data on durable and capital goods orders in December, followed by the final University of Michigan sentiment reading for January (98.1 expected; 98.1 previous). So a fairly busy end to the week alongside the Trump/May meeting.

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