Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,
The Eurostoxx outperformance of the past month has garnered a lot of attention, but there is another similar trade many investors are missing. Not only that, but it has a positive carry, something that…
Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,
Since 1971, and the disconnection of the dollar from a finite gold backing, the value of money (the dollar) has been determined by it’s purchasing power versus the inflation of the assets to be purchased. Thus printing more money has not necessarily created “wealth” if the assets to be purchased are rising as fast or faster than the purchasing power of the “money”. The Fed touts it’s dual mandate of full employment and stable prices…but the result in prices; not so stable.
The primary global asset purchasable only in US dollars, crude oil, has told a story of wildly gyrating prices. Since the end of Bretton Woods and the subsequent Congressionally dual mandated roles bestowed on the Fed…crude oil prices have gone bezerk, twice climbing nearly 10x’s within a decade. This is the opposite of stable (particularly compared to the price stability from WWII’s end until the?Fed took over).
Soooo, theoretically the growth of “money” should be linked to the growth of the population, to ensure an adequate and stable money supply exists for the growing population. In a moment I’ll show you anything but a stable money supply. But first, the chart below shows the total 25-54yr/old US population, those employed among them, and the value in dollars of all publicly traded US stocks (represented by the Wilshire 5000). Something far beyond population growth or employment growth is pushing up the value of dollar based assets, gauging by US stock markets accelerating appreciation.
With that in mind, the chart below shows the growth of M3 money (the broadest measure of US “money”) and the broader 15-64yr/old US population since 1971. The money supply has grown in excess of 20x’s (2,000%) vs. the working age population (15-64yr/olds) which has grown less than 1x (nearly 70% increase).
This results in a rising ratio of “money” on a per capita of the core population basis, as the chart below details. The total amount of “money” rose from approximately $5 thousand dollars per working age adult to todays $65 thousand dollars per adult…an increase of 13x’s (1.300%).
The annual growth of the 15-64yr/old core US population peaked in 2003 and annual core population growth has decelerated by 90% since…while annual M3 growth has doubled over the same time period. The chart below shows the annual changes from 1980 into 2017.
The chart below from 2000 into 2017 shows the change in both core population and M3 money supply, showing the year over year change on a monthly basis…and the current fall in core population growth will continue downward, likely turning negative at times over the next year (yet another first for America).
The final chart is the growth in M3 money supply per the growth in the adult, working age population. I’m not an economist or expert on much of anything…but that doesn’t look particularly good to me (something to do with “hyper-monetization” or some such thing).
All I can say is the appearance of hockey sticks typically aren’t a good or stable sign but their appearance, just like those of black swans, has become the “new normal”.
The post American Exceptionalism: Decelerating Population Growth, Accelerating Money Growth appeared first on crude-oil.news.
As reported earlier by Charles Gasparino of Fox News and subsequently confirmed by ABC, President Trump has reportedly retained a private attorney for Special Counsel Mueller’s probe of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian officials. Not surprisingly, Trump has chosen Marc Kasowitz of Kasowitz Benson Torres LLP whose list of ‘notable representations’ includes representing “President Donald J. Trump in a wide range of litigation matters for over 15 years” at the very top, most recently in regards to Trump’s threat to sue to NYT for an October story that he groped and kissed women. In addition, Kasowitz represented Trump in numerous other cases, including on his divorce records, real estate transactions and allegations of fraud at Trump University.
— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) May 23, 2017
NEW: Pres. Trump expected to retain Marc Kasowitz as private attorney representing him on matters related to Russia probe, @ABC confirms.
— ABC News (@ABC) May 23, 2017
Among the firm’s other notable attorneys is none other than former Senator, and rumored front-runner for the vacant FBI Director seat, Joe Lieberman. That said, we would assume that the retention of Kasowitz implies that Lieberman is no longer being considered for the FBI’s top spot. It remains to be seen how long until Trump’s retention of outside counsel is interpreted by the media as admission of guilt.
The post Trump Retains Marc Kasowitz As Private Attorney For Russia Probe appeared first on crude-oil.news.
Exxon has been battling subpoenas from NY Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, who is probing the company for fraud in its public statements about climate change.
crude oilThe post Exxon must give records to NY prosecutor, state appeals court rules app…
There is no commodity as essential and yet unknown as zinc, a metal that plays a central role in everything from infrastructure to military technology and even health care. But zinc will soon come out of the shadows, as a serious supply deficit looms and demand continues to grow. The last two years have seen several millionaire-maker metals breakout, with both lithium and cobalt experiencing unprecedented growth. Now it is zinc’s turn to enter a super-cycle, and the similarities cannot be ignored. And it’s not just that supply is low…
Senate Democrats in Illinois, with a final vote of 32-26, have just passed a new budget proposal that includes a massive personal and corporate income tax hike and an expansion of the state’s sales tax, after saying they are no longer willing to wait f…
The post Illinois Democrats In Senate Pass 33% Hike Of Personal And Corporate Income Taxes appeared first on crude-oil.news.
A more fuel-friendly administration would be welcome to many in Alberta, home of Canada’s oil sands and the biggest exporter of crude oil to the …
The post Is Canada’s <b>Oil</b> Production Ready For A Resurgence? appeared first on crude-oil.news.
Presidential budgets are pure hocus-pocus.
Government has teams of “economists” who, instead of pointing out that economic laws cannot be violated, concoct formulas that seek to justify government expansion.
That’s really the only thing that bureaucrats care about … expansion. The “economists” come up with the justifications, and thus get to keep their plush jobs of exonerating the state.
Because estimates don’t hold the same importance that they do in the private sector, you can always count on government to underestimate expenses and overestimate tax revenues.
The politically-connected get their share of the loot, and the mainstream media gets to scream and shout about “cuts” that aren’t really cuts at all.
?Pull up a chart of government spending and debt. You’ll see that the direction goes in one direction only — UP!
Democrats, Republicans, people like Trump who call themselves “outsiders” — UP it continues to go!
In the Washington D.C. fantasyland, a cut in the rate of increase from the previous year is considered an actual cut. Think about that…
Whenever government spends money, it crowds out productive spending (or saving) that would have occurred if taxpayers were able to keep their earnings. If individuals spent their own money, we’d see products, services, and jobs that they actually want would be created. That would be productive.
?Government spending, on the other hand, is arbitrary, politically-motivated and non-productive.
Donald Trump, the supposed “businessman president,” is proposing a budget that spends more next year than it does this year!
Trump took over a bankrupt government, and he’s increasing its spending. What kind of business sense is that?
No doubt, his “economists” said that this was a good idea.
From a perspective of liberty, government should not perpetually expand, but should be cut….for real! That means someone needs to actually cut the size and scope of government.
Government doesn’t even balance the budget, let alone consider cutting.
So where do you cut if you’re actually interested in living in a land of the free?
As Murray Rothbard so eloquently answered such a question: “Anywhere and everywhere!”
NEW YORK U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to sell 270 million barrels of oil from the U.S. petroleum reserve could have the unintended …
The post Proposed US <b>oil</b> reserve sales could boost, not hurt, OPEC’s plan appeared first on crude-oil.news.
The White House proposed selling nearly half the crude oil in the US
Strategic Petroleum Reserve over 10 years beginning in fiscal 2018 as
part of the proposed federal budget it released on May 23.