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Uncertainty Looms Over Australian LNG

While U.S. LNG looks set to be competitive in 2017, reaching export markets in Latin America and East Asia, a significant source of competition will be Australia, the other Pacific natural gas powerhouse. With billions invested in new production and export facilities, the Down Under energy producer looks ready to take advantage of conditions in 2017, if all goes according to plan, before new restrictions and slowing investment hold back further export growth. Australian LNG exports are expected to be much higher in 2017, with Platts reporting the…


No Picture

Uncertainty Looms Over Australian LNG

While U.S. LNG looks set to be competitive in 2017, reaching export markets in Latin America and East Asia, a significant source of competition will be Australia, the other Pacific natural gas powerhouse. With billions invested in new production and export facilities, the Down Under energy producer looks ready to take advantage of conditions in 2017, if all goes according to plan, before new restrictions and slowing investment hold back further export growth. Australian LNG exports are expected to be much higher in 2017, with Platts reporting the…



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Bullion, Biotechs, & Banks Bid As Bonds & Black Gold Skid

Following this morning’s manic euphoria in small businesses and ahead of tonight’s delusion by Obama, given the market’s performance, this seemed appropriate…

But, it appears the hype of the reflation/growth trade is now well and truly over…

 

Financial conditions don’t seem to matter…

 

For now it’s all about 2018 or 2019 or 2020…?

 

Because trailing earnings are ‘disappointing’ to say the least…

 

And 2017 Earnings still haven’t been notched up by the analysts…

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Having got all that off our chests… Nasdaq another record high as The Dow tried but failed again for 20k, clinging to unch as Small Caps and Trannies squeezed higher again…NOTE – once again we rallied into the European close and sold off… and once again a weak close

 

Nasdaq longest streak of gains to start a year since 2006.

 

Financials and Healthcare outperformed…

 

As Biotech stocks continue their charge higher, up 6 days in a row (longest win streak since July 2015) – best start to a year since 2000 (which was followed by complete carnage)…

 

Banks continue to tred water for the last few weeks ahead of this week’s chaos of earnings on Friday…

 

WMT stumbled into the red after announcing more layoffs…

 

VIX ended unchanged aftr the initial slam to send stocks higher…

 

The Dollar Index limped higher…

 

As Yuan weakened all day (back above 6.91/$)…

 

Treasury yields also limped higher today (long-end underperforming the short-end)…

 

WTI Crude front-month tumbled to a $50 handle at the NYMEX close…

 

Gold is up 11 of the last 13 days to 6 week highs…

 

Gold remains 2017’s biggest winner so far… with oil the biggest loser..

The post Bullion, Biotechs, & Banks Bid As Bonds & Black Gold Skid appeared first on crude-oil.top.



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Trump Rally Starting To Thin Out

Via Dana Lyons’ Tumblr,

Despite the recent string of Nasdaq new highs, more stocks have been declining than advancing.

One of the hallmarks of the post-election “Trump Rally” in stocks has been the fairly broad participation. With a few exceptions, most sectors and style groups have gone along for the ride, resulting in breakouts to new high ground among most mainstream indices. However, there are signs that such broad strength has begun to thin. For example, the last few days have witnessed a development in sharp contrast to that prior positive breadth. Looking at the Nasdaq specifically, we see that the Nasdaq Composite has made a 52-week high on each of the past 3 days. Despite the new highs, however, each of those 3 days saw more declining issues on the Nasdaq exchange than advancers.

As you might expect, such a streak is rare. Indeed, similar 3-day runs have only occurred 2 other times since 1988 (and perhaps longer). Those dates were July 13, 1998 and February 28, 2012. And while 3 days of diverging internals isn’t necessarily a long-term death knell for the rally, it isn’t a healthy condition either. Following the prior occurrences, the Nasdaq was able to rally another week in the former case and another month in the latter before succumbing to 25% and 10% pullbacks, respectively.

2 precedents is not a lot to go on, however, so we took a look at all streaks of at least 2 days in which either the Nasdaq Composite or the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closed at a 52-week high with negative breadth on each day. That produced 20 prior occurrences going back to 1990. Two of them occurred in 1995 and 1996 and did not lead to more than a hiccup in the ongoing Nasdaq bull market. The other occurrences, beginning in 1998, were not all as benign.

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We typically show aggregate median or average returns based on these types of studies. However, given the hit-or-miss performance of the NDX following each of the prior specific occurrences, it wouldn’t be of much value. Rather, let’s take a look at some specific instances.

As mentioned, the 2 events in 1995-1996 were irrelevant as red flags and, in fact, the majority of events (barely) still saw the NDX higher from 1 day to 2 years out. However, as seen by looking at the chart, there have been some signals that were  obviously well-timed warnings regarding the thinning new highs. These include occurrences immediately preceding bear markets in July 1998, March 2000, September 2007 and July 2015 (in some indices). There were also occurrences directly preceding pullbacks of 5%-10% in April 1999, December 2004 and September 2012.

Which will it be this time, false alarm or prescient warning? Again, we unfortunately do not have a crystal ball. We will point out that most of the dates mentioned above that preceded serious trouble had seen a more significant deterioration in the market’s internals leading up to the signal. They were not just “one-off” data anomalies, but more tipping points to an unhealthy condition that had been building for some time.

And while this very recent run of lagging internals is certainly not a healthy condition, we would definitely not characterize the larger market environment as experiencing a large-scale internal deterioration. The advance-decline lines on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq set new highs just last week. And many broad market indices, including small-caps and mid-caps are just coming off of new highs as well.

This doesn’t mean the market won’t correct here. This data point, again, is not a signal of health. But we would stop short of labeling it a sign of major or long-term concern just yet.

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More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

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Maersk Oil’s Danish business to cut up to 160 jobs

The Danish business unit of Maersk Oil, a wholly owned subsidiary of AP Moller-Maersk AS of Copenhagen, expects to reduce up to 160 positions over the coming months in an effort to simplify the organization.


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Live Stream: Key Things To Watch For At General John Kelly’s Confirmation Hearing

After an interesting morning of questioning by the Judiciary Committee of Senator Jeff Sessions, complete with numerous interruptions by disaffected, Hillary-supporting snowflakes seeking their 15 minutes of fame, Retired General John F. Kelly is set to take the stand before the Senate’s Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee at 3:30PM EST.  While Sessions was undoubtedly one of the more controversial picks in the eyes of Washington’s liberal elites, we have no doubt that General Kelly will face equally rigorous questioning and will be forced to contend for airtime with his own group of interrupting snowflakes.

As Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), one of Kelly’s key responsibilities will be to oversee border security, immigration and the construction of Trump’s “beautiful” border wall.  Of course, the President-elect has made numerous controversial comments regarding immigration issues on the campaign trail including calling for “extreme vetting” of immigrants and a ban on those coming from “some of the most dangerous and volatile regions of the world that have a history of exporting terrorism”…all of which General Kelly will undoubtedly have to answer for.  Per NPR:

DHS agencies are also responsible for defending the nation’s borders and overseeing the immigration system. It’s those areas that are most in the sights of the incoming president, who has called for measures including a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico, the deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S. and “extreme vetting” of immigrants wishing to enter the country.

 

Trump said on the campaign trail that should be focused on those coming from “some of the most dangerous and volatile regions of the world that have a history of exporting terrorism,” as an adaptation of the ban on Muslims entering the U.S. Trump proposed at the end of 2015.

 

Senators are likely to question Kelly closely on those issues. Kelly has stated that he believes economic aid and education are as necessary to stop the flow of migrants from Central America to the U.S. as a strong barrier. He has also stated that he believes half a million Americans have died from narcoterrorism.

Of course, while immigration will be a focal point during today’s hearings, it should be noted that the Department of Homeland Security is a sprawling enterprise, with a variety of responsibilities including oversight of natural disasters (FEMA), airport security (TSA), presidential security (U.S. Secret Service), the Coast Guard and cybersecurity.  In fact, regarding that last point, we would expect General Kelly to be asked for his opinion on his predecessor’s staggering 11th hour power grab announced just last week to designate election systems as “Critical Infrastructure” (see “In Stunning Last Minute Power Grab, Obama Designates Election Systems As ‘Critical Infrastructure’“).  Overall, DHS has a budget of $40 billion and over 250,000 employees.

The following is brief recap of General Kelly’s bio courtesy of Politico:

Retired Gen. John Kelly is a 45-year Marine veteran who headed the U.S. Southern Command, where he focused on U.S. border security, organized crime, terrorist organizations and drug traffickers in his Latin American region for more than three years.

 

Also on his watch was the U.S. military prison for suspected terrorists at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, which President Barack Obama has repeatedly vowed to close.

 

Kelly retired as a four-star general in 2016.

 

Before his SOUTHCOM command, based near Miami, Kelly led the Multi-National Force — West in Iraq during the first year of the Obama administration. He was also the legislative assistant to the Marine Corps commandant from 2004 to 2007 and, later, the senior military aide to Defense Secretaries Robert Gates and Leon Panetta.

 

Born in 1950 in Boston, Kelly enlisted in the Marine Corps in 1970. Following his graduation from the University of Massachusetts Boston, he was commissioned as an officer and commanded a rifle and weapons platoon with the 2nd Marine Division.

 

The father of three, Kelly became one of the most senior U.S. military officers to lose a son or daughter in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. His son, 1st Lt. Robert Michael Kelly, died after he stepped on a land mine while leading a Marine platoon in southern Afghanistan.

And, as we noted earlier, while all of this will make for fine political theater, given that Republicans control a 52-48 majority in the Senate and that Democrats eliminated the 60-vote threshold in 2013, all of the liberal grandstanding this week will ultimately amount to nothing more than an attempt to discredit and shame Trump’s appointees as they will all almost certainly be confirmed anyway.  As John Cornyn of Texas pointed out, “[Democrats] can delay the process, they can’t stop it.”  

With that, here is a live stream of General Kelly’s confirmation hearing:

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Peak GroupThink?

Wall Street strategists are abiding by a new motto these days: When in doubt, copy everyone else.

The gap between the most optimistic and pessimistic strategist forecasts is just 9%, the smallest on record dating back to 1999, according to Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research.

Source: Wall Street Journal

Bottom line: There is a record amount of “group think” in this year’s round of highly-paid professional guesses.

What could go wrong?

Bottom-Up

 

Top-Down…

The post Peak GroupThink? appeared first on crude-oil.top.


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Platts Sees China’s LPG Demand Growth Slows In 2017

Driven by robust industrial and petrochemical consumption, Chinese liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) demand will continue to grow this year by 10 percent, but well below the 24-percent demand jump last year, S&P Global Platts said in its 2017 outlook, citing market sources and analysts. This year’s demand growth is seen as slowing due to fewer propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant startups, according to analysts and sources. The strong demand growth in 2016 was due to higher demand from petrochemical plants—including PDH plants—industrial…