Top Ex-White House Economist Admits 94% Of All New Jobs Under Obama Were Part-Time

Just over six years ago, in December of 2010, we wrote “Charting America’s Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society“, in which we predicted – and showed – that in light of the underlying changes resulting from the second great depression, whose full impacts remain masked by trillions in monetary stimulus and soon, perhaps fiscal, America is shifting from a traditional work force, one where the majority of new employment is retained on a full-time basis, to a “gig” economy, where workers are severely disenfranchised, and enjoy far less employment leverage, job stability and perks than their pre-crash peers. It also explains why despite the 4.5% unemployment rate, which the Fed has erroneously assumed is indicative of job market at “capacity”, wage growth not only refuses to materialize, but as we showed yesterday, the growth in real disposable personal income was the lowest since 2014.

 

When we first penned our article, it was dubbed “fringe” tinfoil hattery, or in the latest vernacular, “fake news.”

Fast forward 6 years, when a report by Harvard and Princeton economists Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger, confirms exactly what we warned. In their study, the duo show that from 2005 to 2015, the proportion of Americans workers engaged in what they refer to as “alternative work” soared during the Obama era, from 10.7% in 2005 to 15.8% in 2015. Alternative, or “gig” work is defined as “temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract company workers, independent contractors or freelancers”, and is generally unsteady, without a fixed paycheck and with virtually no benefits.

The two economists also found that each of the common types of alternative work increased from 2005 to 2015—with the largest changes in the number of independent contractors and workers provided by contract firms, such as janitors that work full-time at a particular office, but are paid by a janitorial services firm.

Krueger, who until 2013 was also the top White House economist serving as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama, was “surprised” by the finding.

Quoted by quartz, he said “We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Krueger. “And over 60% was due to the [the rise] of independent contractors, freelancers and contract company workers.” In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment.

While the finding is good news for some, such as graphic designers and lawyers who hate going to an office, for whom new technology and Obamacare has made it more appealing to become an independent contractor. But for those seeking a steady administrative assistant office job, the market is grim. It also explains why despite an apparent recovery in the labor market, wage growth has been non-existant, due to the lack of career advancement and salary increase options for this vast cohort which was hired over the past decade.

The decline of conventional full-time work has impacted every demographic. Whether this change is good or bad depends on what kinds of jobs people want. “Workers seeking full-time, steady work have lost,” said Krueger. He then added, perhaps sarcastically, that “while many of those who value flexibility and have a spouse with a steady job have probably gained.”

Yes, well, spousal support aside, it also confirms another troubling finding this website reported first earlier this month, namely that the number of multiple jobholders has recently hit the highest number this century.

 

Not surprisingly, the study found that young workers represented the largest growth of contractors who frequently do not receive any kind of benefits, even when they are working full-time. The issue is particularly frustrating to employees in the entertainment industry where media conglomerates rely on freelancers for long periods of time without offering benefits, an arrangement frequently referred to as “permalance.”

None of these “qualitative” aspects, however, matter to the outgoing president, who believes his administration was a net positive for workers.

“Since I signed Obamacare into law (in 2010), our businesses have added more than 15 million new jobs,” said Obama, during his farewell press conference last Friday.

He did not delve into the details of just what those 15 million new jobs were. Now we know; and we also know why the Fed is making a huge mistake in thinking it can hike rates and tighten financial conditions, to reverse engineer wage growth, when corporations are guaranteed to not increase wages even in response to higher rates, as the data above confirms that the amount of slack in the economy is vastly greater than virtually all economists are willing to admit.

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Obama Administration Abstains, Defying Trump, As UN Votes To Condemn Israel Settlements

Israel lashed out at the Obama administration  “friends don’t act that way” after Ambassador Power abstained (refusing to veto) as The United Nations passed a resolution demanding Israel to stop settlement building on occupied Palestinian territory. As NYTimes notes, the administration’s decision not to veto the measure broke a longstanding American tradition of serving as Israel’s sturdiest diplomatic shield, and defied extraordinary pressure from President-elect Trump.

As The New York Times reports, the administration’s decision not to veto the measure came a day after Mr. Trump personally intervened to keep the draft measure, proposed by Egypt, from coming up for a vote on Thursday, as scheduled.

Mr. Trump’s aides said he spoke to the Israeli prime minister,Benjamin Netanyahu. Both men also spoke to the Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Egypt postponed the vote.

 

But in a show of mounting frustration, a group of other countries on the 15-member Security Council — all of them relatively powerless temporary members with rotating two-year seats — snatched the resolution away from Egypt and put it up for a vote Friday afternoon.

 

It passed 14 votes in favor, with the United States abstaining.

Ambassador Power tried to explain herself (yes that Smantha Power):

  • *POWER QUOTES REAGAN IN DEFENSE OF U.S. ABSTENTION ON UN VOTE
  • *POWER SAYS VOTE WAS NOT `STRAIGHTFORWARD’ FOR U.S.
  • *POWER SAYS ISRAEL STILL TREATED DIFFERENTLY AT THE UN
  • *POWER: CAN’T CHAMPION SETTLEMENTS AND TWO-STATE SOLUTION TOO
  • *POWER: UN RESOLUTION `TOO NARROWLY FOCUSED’ ON SETTLEMENTS

As yet Donald Trump has not tweeted his response, but the Israelis are not happy:

  • *ISRAEL’S STEINITZ ON U.S. VOTE: `FRIENDS DON’T ACT THAT WAY’
  • *UN VOTE NOT ANTI-SETTLEMENT, IT’S ANTI-ISRAEL: YUVAL STEINITZ
  • Manoj Rawal: U.S. HAS “ABANDONED ISRAEL,” #ISRAELI MINISTER CLOSE TO #NETANYAHU SAYS AFTER UN SECURITY COUNCIL VOTE ON
  • *ISRAEL’S DANON SAYS U.S. VETO OF UN MOVE `WAS TO BE EXPECTED’
  • *ISRAEL’S DANON: `NEW ERA’ WILL COME WITH TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

Paul Ryan has chimed in:

  • *RYAN SAYS U.S. REFUSAL TO VETO UN ISRAEL RESOLUTION `SHAMEFUL’

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Mr. Putin Comes To Washington? “If Trump Invites Me, Of Course I’ll Come”

We can only imagine the establishment’s reaction to their arch-nemesis appearance on their doorstep, but as TASS reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday he is ready to pay a visit to the US if the new US President Donald Trump sends an invitation to him.

“If Trump invites to come to the United States, then I will certainly come,” Putin told reporters.

 

The Russian president refrained from providing the exact date of his possible meeting with the US President-elect.

 

“It’s difficult to say now, first the president-elect of the United States has to take the time to put together his future cabinet,” Putin stressed.

According to our records this would be Putin’s first official visit to the United States since July 2007.

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Biden: “Elitist” Clinton “Never Really Figured Out Why She Was Running”

As speculation continues to swirl over whether or not Biden will make a run for the Presidency in 2020, he has maintained a curious presence in the media in recent weeks and recently offered some pretty harsh critiques of the Clinton campaign when he sat down with the Los Angeles Times.  Mimicking comments made by Neera Tanden which were exposed by Wikileaks, Biden suggested that Hillary lost primarily because she never “really figured out why she was running.”  Per The Hill

Vice President Biden believes Hillary Clinton lost the presidential election in part because she never figured why she was running for the nation’s highest office.

 

“I don’t think she ever really figured it out,” Biden told the Los Angeles Times in an interview published Thursday. “And by the way, I think it was really hard for her to decide to run.”

 

“She thought she had no choice but to run,” he said. “That, as the first woman who had an opportunity to win the presidency, I think it was a real burden on her.”

Of course, Biden clarified that Clinton was ultimately nothing more than a martyr who simply had to run because she was the “first woman who had an opportunity to win the presidency.”

With all due respect, we’re not convinced Hillary was running because “she thought she had no choice but to run.”  What if the answer is more simplistic than that.  What if Hillary simply couldn’t relay her motivations for running because it wasn’t politically expedient to do so.  What if Hillary didn’t visit WI, MI, PA and OH because she wasn’t running to help those people and didn’t care about their fate.  What if Hillary’s run was all about the Clinton’s neverending, selfish lust for infinite power and wealth?  Nah, the simplest answers are rarely right.

Joe Biden

 

Playing a little Monday-morning QB, Biden recollects fearing that “his people” of the Midwest might turn on Democrats in 2016 due the “elitism” that had crept into the party’s thinking.

“Son of a gun. We may lose this election,” Biden recalled thinking. “They’re all the people I grew up with. They’re their kids. And they’re not racist. They’re not sexist. But we didn’t talk to them.”

 

He said the Democratic Party as a whole suffered because “we were not letting an awful lot of people — high school-educated, mostly Caucasian, but also people of color — know that we understood their problems.”

 

There is “a bit of elitism that’s crept in” to party thinking, he said.

 

“I was trying to be as tactful as I could in making it clear that I thought we constantly made a mistake of not speaking to the fears, aspirations, concerns of middle class people,” he said.

In the campaign, “you didn’t hear a word about that husband and wife working, making 100,000 bucks a year, two kids, struggling and scared to death. They used to be our constituency.”

Meanwhile, shortly after saying that the people of the Midwest are not “racist” or “sexist,” Biden explains that Trump won “working-class people” by appealing to their racism and sexism. 

“I don’t think he understands working-class or middle-class people,” Biden said. “He at least acknowledged the pain. But he played to the prejudice. He played to the fear. He played to the desperation.”

 

“There was nothing positive that I ascertained when he spoke to these folks that was uplifting.”

While Joe stays quite about a future run, there is no doubt that the media has already chosen their challenger for 2020.

Young Joe Biden

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