Credit Suisse FX Strategy Research makes the case for further EUR upsidein the coming months mainly on the ground of the following 3 reasons:
1- CS take the view that the French election does not result in a Le Pen victory, allowing for the risk premium still priced into 2m EURUSD implied volatility and risk reversals to be taken out, and for EUR to rally as a result.
2- CS argues that along with the current account support for EUR that is a persistent backdrop, the recent more hawkish ECB tilt, and the fact that global reserve manager allocations to EUR are still near historical lows, this leaves room for more EUR upside.
3- CS is also encouraged by the positive momentum in European equities this year even in the face of the currency’s recent recovery.
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